Scientific Program

The Symposium will consist of:

Plenary Sessions

Morning plenary sessions to provide overarching keynote presentations and to introduce topics for the concurrent sessions to be convened on the same day.

Plenary Speakers (TBA)

Topic Sessions (June 4-8)
Concurrent Topic Sessions every day, following a morning plenary session

  • Session 1: Ocean extremes and their impact on marine ecosystems
  • Session 2: From prediction to projection: the role of seasonal to decadal forecasts in a changing climate
  • Session 3: Carbon uptake, ocean acidification, and ecosystems and human impacts
  • Session 4: Deoxygenation in Global Ocean and Coastal Waters in Relation to Climate Change
  • Session 5: Climate change impacts on high latitude systems on multiple scales in space and time
  • Session 6: The deep ocean under climate change
  • Session 7: Eastern Boundary upwelling systems: diversity, coupled dynamics and sensitivity to climate change
  • Session 8: Understanding the impact of Abrupt Ocean Warming and Continental Scale Connections on marine productivity and food security via Western Boundary Currents
  • Session 9: Drifting into the Anthropocene: How will pelagic marine ecosystems be affected and what are the biogeochemical and lower trophic consequences
  • Session 10: Management and conservation of species on the move
  • Session 11: Benthic and pelagic system responses in a changing ocean: From genes to ecosystem level functioning
  • Session 12: Scenarios and models to explore the future of marine coupled human-natural systems under climate change
  • Session 13: Multiple stressors at multiple scales: ecosystem based management in the face of changing ocean conditions
  • Session 14: Vulnerability and adaptation of marine socio-ecological systems to climate change
  • Session 15: Fisheries and aquaculture in the face of climate change: Current actions, identified solutions and opportunities in support of sustainable livelihoods and food security
  • Session 16: Climate, oceans and security
  • Session 17: Effects of climate change on ocean ecosystem health: Projecting occurrences of harmful algal blooms and disease outbreaks and assessment of the risk to ecosystem functioning, aquaculture, fisheries and human health
  • Session 18: Coastal ecosystem and their blue carbon science, conservation and policy progress

Pre-symposium concurrent Workshops (June 2-3)

  • Workshop 1: Communicating and responding to climate change
  • Workshop 2: Advances in Earth System Models (ESMs) for marine applications
  • Workshop 3: Exploring potential ocean-based solutions to climate change impacts on marine biodiversity and ecosystem services
  • Workshop 4: Climate change adaptation of fisheries and aquaculture: examples of field projects supporting countries and communities
  • Workshop 5: Climate Change and Fishing Communities: Interactions with Environmental Conservation, Sustainable Livelihoods and Food Security
  • Workshop 6: Utilizing bioenergetics measurements and modeling to evaluate climate change effects on marine species and ecosystems
  • Workshop 7: What do seabirds reveal about the effects of climate change on the World’s Oceans?
  • Workshop 8: Connecting climate, ocean and ecosystem observation – Ocean observation futures
  • Workshop 9: Vulnerability of Low Elevated Coastal Zones (LECZ) to SLR in changing oceans
  • Workshop 10: Intercomparison of fisheries and marine ecosystem models


Topic Sessions

S1: Ocean extremes and their impact on marine ecosystems

Convenors:

Thomas Frölicher
(Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland)

Gabriel Reygondeau
(Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Canada)

Emanuele Di Lorenzo
(Georgia Institute of Technology, GA, USA)

Invited Speaker:
TBA

Extreme climate and weather events shape the structure of biological systems and affect the biogeochemical functions and services they provide for society in a fundamental manner. There is overwhelming evidence that the frequency, duration, intensity and timing of extreme events on land are changing under global warming, increasing the risk of severe, pervasive and in some cases irreversible impacts on natural and socio-economic systems. In contrast we know very little about how extreme events in the ocean, especially those associated with warming, acidification, deoxygenation and nutrient stress, will unfold in time and space. In addition, our understating of the impact of ocean extreme events on marine organisms and ecosystem services is very poor. This session seeks current knowledge as well as new and evolving insights into modeling and observational efforts that advance our understanding of the regional and global short-term and long-term changes in marine extreme events (heat waves, hypoxia, acidification, nutrient stress) and how these events impact marine organisms, biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Email S1 Convenors

S2: From prediction to projection: the role of seasonal to decadal forecasts in a changing climate

Convenors:

Mark R. Payne
(DTU-Aqua, Technical University of Denmark Copenhagen, Denmark)

Erica.Ombres
(NOAA OAR Ocean Acidification Program, USA)

Mike Jacox
(University of California Santa Cruz, Institute of Marine Sciences, NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, USA)

Masami Nonaka
(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan)

Invited Speaker:
TBA

Research examining the future impacts of environmental change and variability on ocean ecosystems has historically been focused on making projections on multi-decadal to centennial time scales. Nevertheless, recent years have seen the emergence of the first generation of marine ecosystem predictions working on shorter timescales (i.e. seasonal, annual and decadal scales). These forecasts are tailored to the tactical decision-making timescales of individuals, businesses, sectors or governments and inform strategies for coping with and adapting to climate change and variability. They also form a natural continuum with projections on the climatic timescale: many of the techniques used are similar, and testing predictability in the short-term builds confidence in our ability to project in the long-term. In this session, we welcome contributions on a broad range of potential future impacts on ocean ecosystems, including (but not limited to) ocean warming, circulation changes, acidification, eutrophication, hypoxia, and ecosystem structure or function. We seek research that addresses prediction of these ecosystem impacts as well as its relationship to long-term projections; relevant topics include 1) mechanisms that generate predictability in ocean ecosystems, 2) methods for statistically and/or mechanistically forecasting physical and/or biological variables, 3) case studies of existing biological forecast systems, 4) requirements for forecasts - including end-user needs - and assessment of forecast value, and 5) uses of forecasts within a climate-change adaptation context. Contributions that link the time-scales of prediction and projection and highlight examples of what one field can learn from the other are particularly encouraged.

Email S2 Convenors

S3: Carbon uptake, ocean acidification, and ecosystems and human impacts

Convenors:

Masahiko Fujii
(Hokkaido University, Japan)

Tsuneo Ono
(Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency)

Libby Jewett
(NOAA)

Galen A. McKinley
(Columbia University/Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory)

Nianzhi Jiao
(Xiamen University)

Invited Speaker:
TBA

By absorbing significant quantities of CO2, the ocean provides a critical climate regulation service. At the same time, carbon uptake is altering marine biogeochemistry, food web and ecosystem properties. Other drivers of large-scale degradation of the marine environment have been widely reported, specifically temperature-driven coral bleaching and hypoxia. Yet, there exist significant uncertainties. The long-term ability of the ocean to absorb carbon and thus to modulate climate is a critical question of utmost relevance to international climate negotiations. Uncertainties with respect to impacts on marine ecosystems and human society hinders the effective management of ocean resources.

In this session, we will explore a range of physical, biogeochemical, and sociological interactions that impact the ocean CO2 sink, rates of acidification, and ecosystem impacts. Presentations will characterize the physical and biogeochemical processes driving current and projected future CO2 uptake, variability, and long-term trends. Advanced methods both for observing CO2 uptake, and for modeling its variability and change will be discussed. Contributions are also welcome from observational, experimental, modeling and socio-economic studies on ocean acidification, hypoxia, biological carbon sequestration and related ecosystem dynamics with various spatio-temporal scales, from local to global and from short to long-term. Linkages between these processes with potential development of international observing and modeling networks, vulnerability assessments, management strategies and integrative studies are particularly welcome.

Email S3 Convenors

S4: Deoxygenation in Global Ocean and Coastal Waters in Relation to Climate Change

Convenors:

Denis Gilbert
(Pelagic and Ecosystem Science Branch, Maurice-Lamontagne Institute, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Québec, Canada)

Nancy N. Rabalais
(Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University, USA)

Invited Speaker:
TBA

Deoxygenation in the open ocean, upwelling systems, oxygen minimum zones, and coastal waters is expected to accelerate over the next decades in response to warming-induced reduction in O2 solubility and increased ocean stratification that would diminish ventilation of marine waters. In addition, multiple stressors from eutrophication worsen oxygen depletion in coastal waters where hypoxia and harmful algal blooms (including those that are toxin producers) is now a prevalent and worsening situation. Observations indicate that the global ocean oxygen inventory has already decreased by 2% over the past five decades, and the volume occupied by oxygen minimum zones (OMZ) quadrupled over the same time period. Many questions are raised for open ocean and coastal waters. Do the spatial and temporal patterns of observed oxygen changes match projections from climate change models? Do large-scale patterns of atmospheric and oceanic variability such as ENSO (El-Niño Southern Oscillation), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation or the Southern Annular Mode prevent us from detecting multi-decadal oxygen trends with confidence because of a signal to noise ratio that still remains too low? Should we expect that coastal waters, because of their adjoining landscapes and oceanscapes, will be variably affected by warming? Changes in temperature, winds and currents will alter physical processes. Biological process rates should increase up to some point where other limiting factors may intervene. Climate-driven changes in landscape use, particularly agriculture, will occur along with changes in precipitation, weather patterns, freshwater discharge and nutrient loads, all drivers of physical structure and biological production that can cause changes in dissolved oxygen concentrations in the lower water column. How does global warming affect the ocean’s density stratification, vertical mixing rates, deep convection, and ventilation processes in the main thermocline? What are the expected impacts of deoxygenation on various trophic levels, on biogeochemical cycles, on fisheries and on ecosystem functions and services? How can studies of paleo-indicators shed light on what we may expect in the future?

In this session we are seeking contributions that will help address the physics and biogeochemistry of deoxygenation – from continental shelves to the deep ocean – from various angles: causes, impacts, monitoring and modeling. We welcome presentations that include long-term observations that help conceptualize the intricacies of how inter-related biological and physical processes drive oxygen changes.

Email S4 Convenors

S5: Climate change impacts on high latitude systems on multiple scales in space and time

Convenors:

Will Perrie
(Bedford Institute of Oceanography, DFO, Canada)

Vincent Saba
(NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, Princeton NJ, USA)

Invited Speakers:
TBA

The focus is regional scales in high latitude systems and northern and southern polar regions, including areas like the Beaufort Sea, Barents Sea, Labrador Sea etc., as well as broader scales like the entire Arctic Ocean and the Southern Ocean. Time scales are from seasonal to decadal. Included topics might be: (a) Seasonal time scales, for example, estimates of September ice conditions and links to preceding winter and early spring atmosphere or ocean conditions. (b) The impacts of climate change on high latitude and Arctic or Southern Ocean storms and their impacts and feedbacks on the upper ocean. (c) The role of inertial gravity waves, mesoscale and sub-mesoscale eddies and related processes on mixed layer depths, vertical mixing, and on the ice edge etc. (d) Estimates of climate and climate change on longer time scales, up to the next several decades, e.g. following IPCC scenarios.

Email S5 Convenors

S6: The deep ocean under climate change

Convenors:

Nadine Le Bris
(University Pierre and Marie Curie, France)

Andrew Sweetman
(The Lyell Centre, Heriot-Watt University, UK)

Invited Speakers:
TBA

Covering over half of the planet, and comprising 95% its habitable volume, the deep ocean (>200 m) is critical to any analysis of the role of the ocean in climate mitigation and adaptation. Beyond its capacity to absorb excess heat, the deep ocean has a predominant role in sequestering carbon and removing it from the atmosphere. The deep sea hosts a broad range of pelagic and benthic ecosystems, which provide services that are vitally important to the entire ocean and biosphere, ranging from nutrient cycling to habitat provision, including greenhouse-gas regulation, support to biodiversity (including genetic diversity), food supply and energy production.

Today, significant changes in the environmental properties of the ocean realm in terms of water column oxygenation, temperature, pH and food supply, with concomitant impacts on deep-sea ecosystems are being recorded at great depth. Recent projections suggest that abyssal (3000–6000 m) ocean temperatures could increase by 1°C over the next 84 years, while abyssal seafloor habitats under areas of deep- water formation may experience reductions in water column oxygen concentrations by as much as 0.03 mL L-1 by 2100. Bathyal depths (200–3000 m) worldwide are predicted to undergo the most significant reductions in pH in all oceans by the year 2100 (0.3 to 0.4 pH units). O2 concentrations may also decline in the bathyal NE Pacific and Southern Oceans, with losses up to 3.7% or more, especially at intermediate depths. Another important environmental parameter, the flux of particulate organic matter to the seafloor, is likely to decline significantly in most oceans, most notably in the abyssal and bathyal Indian Ocean where it is predicted to decrease by 40–55% by the end of the century.

However, how these changes will affect deep-sea ecosystem (both benthic and pelagic) functions and the ecosystem services the deep sea provided are just starting to be inventoried. There are, in particular, still large gaps in our knowledge of deep hydrology, hydrography, pelagic and seafloor ecology that must be filled to anticipate how these changes may impair ecosystems at depth and potential feedbacks to surface waters. The growing imprint of human activities at great depths, including contaminant accumulation, overfishing, and disturbances from seafloor extractive activities, further justifies the need for a better understanding of how direct impacts will interact with climate stressors.

New knowledge is critical to improve predictions and assess societal impacts, and requires the expansion of deep-water observing programs with experimental capacities, to support the design of marine protected areas encompassing vulnerable regions in deep waters, and to inform environmental management of industrial activities and development of new policies addressing deep national and international waters. There is also an unprecedented need to integrate the deep ocean into ocean science and policy. New international regulations (e.g, for mining) and treaties (e.g. for biodiversity), environmental management, and spatial planning also must incorporate climate change impacts on deep ocean-processes.

In this session, we invite presentations that describe how climate stessors may alter deep-ocean ecosystems, as well as their combination with other occurring anthropogenic stressors (e.g., fishing, mineral mining), and what the possible societal implications may be. Current initiatives and observing programs, scientific and policy advances and technological developments that will contribute to this effort are also welcome.

Email S6 Convenors

S7: Eastern Boundary upwelling systems: diversity, coupled dynamics and sensitivity to climate change

Convenors:

Ivonne Montes
(Instituto Geofísico del Perú)

Ryan Rykaczewski
(Department of Biological Sciences and Marine Science Program, University of South Carolina, USA)

Invited Speaker:
TBA

The Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) are the most productive areas of the world’s oceans, supporting large populations of commercially important fish species. The basic forcing mechanism are similar across the different EBUS. However, owing to differences in the relative strengths of potential stressors, a unified understanding regarding the sensitivity of individual EBUS to climate change remains evasive. In this session, we focus on the different physical mechanisms occurring over different time scales (i.e., intradaily, intraseasonal, interannual, decadal, multidecadal) and their implications for water-column properties, biogeochemical cycles, biodiversity/ecosystem structure and functioning, and the regional climate. We seek to identify the key feedback processes in EBUS, appreciate the similarities across systems, and understand the differences. We also intend to identify critical knowledge gaps that limit our current understanding of physical and ecological responses to natural and anthropogenic climate forcing in EBUS.

Email S7 Convenors

S8: Understanding the impact of Abrupt Ocean Warming and Continental Scale Connections on marine productivity and food security via Western Boundary Currents

Convenors:

Ellen Mecray
(NOAA / NESDIS / NCEI)

Avijit Gangopadhyay
(UMassD / SMAST)

Hassan Moustahfid
(FAO, UN)

John Quinlan
(NOAA / NMFS / SEFSC)

Invited Speakers:
TBA

Living marine resources and the coastal communities that depend on them are shifting in response to rapid physical and environmental changes. How are these changes being monitored and measured when connected on large scales by boundary currents and differing management regimes? Recent physical oceanographic studies have shown that changes in the intensity and position of several western boundary currents have already been observed. Specifically, the Kuroshio and Agulhas Currents have shifted their paths poleward. The consequences of such changes for ecosystems, and especially for marine productivity and fisheries, are beginning to emerge. The impact of Arctic meltwater and the North Atlantic Oscillation on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the Gulf Stream have been observed over a few decades now. These changes may be related to disappearing cod and other species from the western north Atlantic and introduction of some new species in the North Atlantic. Similar regime shifts in the productivity of several small pelagic fish species also have severe implications on food security and malnutrition of coastal communities, particularly in West Africa. This session will examine the physical and biological changes measured and documented in western boundary current regimes (e.g., Loop Current / Gulf Stream, Kuroshio, Brazil, East Australian, and Agulhas Currents), with special emphasis on how these changes impact species range shifts, phenology, species interactions, resource management planning and adaptation, as well as the food security and social fabric of coastal communities.

We welcome larger community participation from ocean, climate and fisheries scientists to present advances in (i) understanding physical and biological linkages (ii) boundary current variabilities and trends under climate change and/or (iii) the impact of recent changes in western boundary currents on marine life, productivity, fisheries and food security.

Additional emphasis will be placed on the examination of oceanic and estuarine ‘hotspots’ in these systems, and any evidence for specific areas that can provide environmental refugia for living marine resources.

Email S8 Convenors

S9: Drifting into the Anthropocene: How will pelagic marine ecosystems be affected and what are the biogeochemical and lower trophic consequences

Convenors:

Todd D. O’Brien
(NOAA Fisheries, USA)

Angelica Peña
(Institute of Ocean Sciences, Canada)

Invited Speakers:
TBA

Climate-related changes in the physical and chemical oceanic environment impact the biological and biogeochemical components of marine ecosystems. These impacts take effect at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, and at varying magnitudes, and often differ greatly between geographic regions and realms (e.g., polar vs. equatorial, shelf vs. open ocean). Ultimately, these changes can greatly alter the productivity, biodiversity, and resilience of the marine ecosystems that depend on them.

Since the first ECCWO in 2008, numerous studies have documented changes in ocean acidification, deoxygenation and carbon cycling, planktonic biodiversity and biogeographic range, and the phenology and strength of seasonal events (e.g., spring blooms, onset and strength of stratification, extent and presence of sea ice). Have these instances and impacts changed in magnitude, severity, or geographic extent since 2008, and are new impacts and side-effects now being uncovered?

This session will look at observed and predicted causes and impacts of climate-related changes within pelagic marine lower trophic levels (e.g., microbes, plankton, larval fish) and biogeochemical components (e.g., carbon, oxygen and nutrient cycling), including studies using systematic and sustained ocean observations and modeling.

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S10: Management and Conservation of Species on the Move

Convenors:

Charles Stock
(USA)

Shin-ichi Ito
(Japan)

Cynthia McKenzie
(Canada)

Wendy Morrison
(USA)

Samantha Twiname
(Australia)

Invited Speakers:
TBA

Most fisheries and marine conservation efforts have been managed under the assumption that species distributions are static or fluctuate around historical averages. Sustained scientific surveys and new technologies, however, have revealed persistent climate-driven movements. In some areas, this has resulted in movements across management jurisdictions. Such movements are projected to continue under global warming, creating difficult questions for managers trying to balance coastal economic interests and conservation goals. For example, do past observed shifts reflect future responses? How will the invasion of new species impact resident populations? How will shifted species adapt to new environments? When should new fisheries be established? When is a historically productive fishery extirpated? Should protected areas be relocated? How should historical quotas be adjusted for range shifts? This session welcomes ecosystem, policy and economic research aimed at answering such questions and developing management and conservation strategies that are resilient to movement. Contributions can span research addressing novel observations of and mechanisms underlying movement, modeling historical and projecting future movements and their ecosystem consequences, and incorporation of movement into management and conservation decisions.

Email S10 Convenors

S11: Benthic and pelagic system responses in a changing ocean: From genes to ecosystem level functioning

Convenors:

Mahasweta Saha
(Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research - Kiel (GEOMAR), Germany)

Stacy Krueger Hadfield
(University of Alabama at Brimingham, USA)

Uli Sommer
(Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research - Kiel (GEOMAR), Germany)

Invited Speakers:
TBA

The rapid climate change we are experiencing today poses a major threat to Earth’s biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Ongoing global change is expected to shift the average levels of pCO2, temperature, pH or oxygen by regionally-variable amounts and also to increase the occurrence and intensity of transient extreme events causing species extinction and range shifts with economic impacts. It has recently been suggested that increased variation, rather than changes in mean values, may represent the greater threat to species survival, stressing the need to experimentally study the effects of both environmental variations and extreme events on ecosystems and their functioning. Along with overfishing and deoxygenation at local scales, biological invasions form one of the principal components of global change. Disease occurrence (pathogens, parasites) among hosts including algae, corals and sponges can substantially increase with ocean warming. This session invites contributions from marine biologists and ecologists to bring diverse expertise and new perspectives to a subject of global significance. We encourage submissions from field, laboratory, and mesocosm studies that offer new insights into the functioning of benthic and pelagic ecosystems at the genetic, population, community and ecosystem scale under biotic and abiotic stressors.

Email S11 Convenors

S12: Scenarios and models to explore the future of marine coupled human-natural systems under climate change

Convenors:

William W.L. Cheung
(Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Canada)

Lisa Crozier
(Northwest Fisheries Science Centre, NOAA, USA)

Desiree Tommasi
(Southwest Fisheries Science Centre, NOAA, USA)

Oai Li Chen
(Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Canada)

Invited Speakers:
TBA

The oceans consist of coupled human and natural systems. Responses of marine ecosystems to climate change are thus shaped by human-natural interactions. For example, climate change effects on the biogeochemical properties of the oceans and foodwebs set ecological constraints on fish production. Economically, seafood demand from the growing population, evolving consumption patterns and costs of seafood production determine the viability of fisheries and aquaculture. Socially, available technology, historical development, political stability and regulatory policies also limit the extent of fisheries and mariculture development. Developing scenarios and models for the oceans that incorporate interactions between human and natural components are essential for understanding the dynamics of these coupled systems and informing climate mitigation and adaptation choices. This session invites oral or poster presentations that contribute to understanding the interactions between human and natural marine systems under climate change. Specific topics of the submissions may include, but are not limited to, scenarios e.g., shared socioeconomic pathways for marine systems or sectors; models that integrate different dimensions of human-natural systems e.g., biophysical, economic, social, political dimensions; management strategy evaluations e.g., stakeholder-driven simulation processes that incorporate biological, fishery, and management sub-models to compare the effectiveness of alternative regulatory policies while accounting for uncertainty in different sources, including climate effects; testing, comparison, exploration and integration of multiple modelling approaches; and empirical and mechanistic exploration of the dynamics of coupled human-natural systems. Studies from different marine systems, sectors and spatial scales are welcome. A special issue of a journal for this session may be organized.

Email S12 Convenors

S13: Multiple stressors at multiple scales: ecosystem based management in the face of changing ocean conditions

Convenors:

Carol Robinson
(University of East Anglia, UK)

Isaac Kaplan
(NOAA North West Fisheries Science Center, USA)

Franklin Schwing
(Office of Science and Technology, NOAA Fisheries, USA)

Philip Boyd
(University of Tasmania, Australia)

Saskia Otto
(Hamburg University, Germany)

Invited Speakers:
TBA

The marine realm is experiencing unprecedented changes resulting from the complex interactions between multiple stressors and drivers over multiple time and space scales and which, in turn, affect the human communities that rely on the ocean’s services and resources. Ocean warming, acidification, changing circulation, and deoxygenation are all expected to shift both the productivity and distribution of marine species, and therefore their availability to human communities that depend upon them.

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) is an integrated science-based approach to help evaluate trade-offs in resource uses and maintain healthy, productive, and resilient ecosystems and the services they provide. EBM recognizes the full array of ecosystem interactions and components, including humans, and because it is adaptive, EBM allows the dynamic nature of ecosystems to be managed in the face of multiple human and natural stressors. Integrated ecosystem assessments (IEAs) are a critical science-support element enabling EBM. IEAs synthesize biological, environmental, and socioeconomic information, define objectives, monitor the status of indicators related to those objectives, assess risk, test alternative management scenarios and options, and measure performance relative to objectives. This holistic approach allows consideration of trust resources (e.g., protected species, fish stocks) and trade-offs across multiple human sectors such as shipping, fishing, and energy in the context of stressors such as warming and ocean acidification.

This session invites contributions from researchers investigating how interactions between climate-driven stressors such as warming, ice loss, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation and human driven stressors such as fishing, coastal development, and pollution, impact marine ecosystem structure and functioning at a range of scales, including the provision of ecosystem services. This includes analyses of the ecosystem consequences of multiple stressors on individual species and the importance of biodiversity in the resilience of ecosystems in the face of multiple drivers of change. Examples of integrated sectoral management such as ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM), an important step toward cross-sector EBM, are requested. Studies that project and predict future states by incorporating the estimated consequences of interacting multiple stressors at multiple scales on marine ecosystems and human societies, and those that describe how governments and partners are incorporating climate-related impacts into management and decision-making with the use of EBM tools, approaches, and case studies are also encouraged.

The session is aligned with the 2015-2026 science plan of the SCOR (Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research) and Future Earth sponsored Integrated Marine Biosphere Research (IMBeR) project and the SCOR working group 149 ‘Changing Ocean Biological Systems’.

Email S13 Convenors

S14: Vulnerability and adaptation of marine socio-ecological systems to climate change

Convenors:

Jörn Schmidt
(Kiel Marine Science at Kiel University, Kiel, Germany)

Catarina Frazão Santos
(MARE — Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, Laboratório Marítimo da Guia, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Cascais, Portugal)

Kathy Mills
(Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, USA)

Invited Speakers:
TBA

The recent OECD report on the blue (ocean) economy identified it as being “essential to the welfare and prosperity of humankind” and “a key source of food, energy, minerals, health, leisure and transport upon which hundreds of millions of people depend.” With ocean economic activity poised to double by 2030, operations and management of existing and emerging industries will need to function effectively in a changing climate to ensure the sustainability of both socioeconomic development and ocean ecosystems.

Climate change is already profoundly affecting coastal communities, as well as ocean-based livelihoods and industries (e.g. fisheries, aquaculture) and related management systems, through a variety of impact pathways (e.g. sea level rise, ocean acidification, extreme events, species distribution shift). Adaptation approaches that have occurred in response to such climate-related impacts vary widely across topics and geographic regions. Similarly, planning for future resilience and adaptation has progressed differently across management bodies, communities, and industries.

Efforts to understand the impacts of climate change, and to plan for future adaptation strategies and management approaches, require a recognition and understanding of existing linkages and feedbacks between (and within) social and ecological factors. In this session, we seek contributions that address frameworks or case studies from around the world on sustainability in marine socio-ecological systems under a changing climate. In particular, we welcome contributions that advance the understanding and awareness of: (1) dimensions of vulnerability (e.g. physical, biological, human, financial) that affect adaptation and mitigation approaches; (2) tools and approaches for planning under climate change (e.g. trade-off analyses, evaluations of robustness of different management approaches, vulnerability assessments); and (3) climate adaptation efforts (both already implemented or planned). Contributions may span multiple social and institutional scales (e.g. individuals, communities, industries, management bodies). Examples related to marine spatial planning (MSP) and fisheries are of particular interest, but a wider range of topics is welcome to the session, specifically studies developed at a community scale (e.g. community-level adaptation to climate change in developing countries)

Besides oral contributions, we specifically invite the presentation of case studies as posters, with a short elevator pitch (max. 2 minutes) in the session. A concise session report with best practices and case studies will be produced.

Email S14 Convenors

S15: Fisheries and aquaculture in the face of climate change: Current actions, identified solutions and opportunities in support of sustainable livelihoods and food security.

Convenors:

Lena Westlund
(FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department)

Hassan Moustahfid
(FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department)

Invited Speakers:
TBA

As climate change impacts are threatening marine and inland water ecosystems, fishers, fish farmers and coastal inhabitants will bear the full force of these impacts through less stable livelihoods, changes in the availability and quality of fish for food, and rising risks to their health, safety and homes.

This session will showcase current solutions and opportunities (good practices, tools and approaches) for how to respond to climate change and disaster risks in the fisheries and aquaculture sector. In particular, presentations on initiatives and adaptive strategies that use the Ecosystem Approaches to Fisheries and Aquaculture are welcomed as well as those that are concerned with the context of small-scale fishing and fish farming communities, including with reference to Chapter 9 on Disaster risks and climate change of the Voluntary Guidelines for securing sustainable small-scale fisheries in a context of food security and poverty eradication (the SSF Guidelines – FAO, 2015). In this spirit, the session will consider (i) holistic and integrated approaches to address disaster risks and climate change, (ii) the human rights based approach to development (on which the SSF Guidelines are based), (iii) policies, strategies and initiatives for adaptation, mitigation and resilience-building that are developed in full consultation with fishing and fish farming communities, including indigenous peoples and both men and women.

Email S15 Convenors

S16: Climate, Oceans and Security

Convenors:

Apurva Dave
(US Global Change Research Program, USA)

Alice Alpert
(U.S. Department of State, USA)

Invited Speakers:
TBA

The marine environment supports livelihoods and provides sustenance and essential services to communities, economies and nations around the world. As climate change affects ocean systems, augmenting and amplifying other environmental stresses, it also impacts human systems that rely on the oceans. While the socio-economic dimensions of these impacts have received more mainstream attention, a broad awareness of how ocean change could affect international governance, political and social stability, and military readiness, operations and strategy, is only recently emerging.

The purpose of this session is to explore how climate impacts on the oceans will, and in some cases already have, affect human, national and international security. We welcome submissions exploring a wide range of issues- including how climate impacts might challenge regional and global governance frameworks (for example, through loss of sea ice in the Arctic or shifts in fish stocks in the South China Sea), pose risks to military effectiveness (for example, through sea level rise around coastal infrastructure), or undercut investments in development (for example, through extreme events that disrupt societies and strain humanitarian assistance). We also welcome papers that examine strategically important regions in which multiple security issues overlap.

This session is intended to promote exchange across ocean science and security policy disciplines, and so a particularly important area of discussion will be the research needs for addressing security issues. The session will also identify gaps in our current knowledge and policy frameworks, and will advance understanding of both the vulnerability and resiliency of security- of the associated challenges and opportunities- arising from oceanic and climate change.

Email S16 Convenors

S17: Effects of climate change on ocean ecosystem health: Projecting occurrences of harmful algal blooms and disease outbreaks and assessment of the risk to ecosystem functioning, aquaculture, fisheries and human health

Convenors:

Elisa Berdalet
(Institut de Ciències del Mar -CSIC-, Barcelona, Spain)

Ryan Carnegie
(Department of Aquatic Health Sciences, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary, VA, USA)

Alexandra Campbell
(Faculty of Science, Health, Education and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Australia)

Kedong Yin
(School of Marine Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen (Zhongshan) University, Guangzhou, China)

Invited Speakers:
TBA

Human and ocean health depends on the sustainable use of marine ecosystems, which host invaluable organisms biodiversity, supply food and support economic activities (fisheries, aquaculture, tourism, recreation). These benefits have always been threatened by natural phenomena such as harmful algal blooms (HABs) and pathogen diseases affecting marine life and ecosystems and producing toxins that are bioaccumulated and transferred through the food web up to humans. However, ongoing climate change and anthropogenic pressures can exacerbate these negative impacts by favoring geographic expansion of HAB organisms and increasing the frequency and intensity of their outbreaks, and by fostering pathogen diseases of marine resource species.

Designing effective strategies to protect human health, societal and marine environmental impacts of HABs and marine diseases requires among others, improving the fundamental knowledge of the mechanisms driving these events and consistent and long-term data series. In particular, there is a need to understand how changes in the main drivers of primary producers (surface water temperature and salinity, ocean stratification, wind and water circulation patterns, precipitation-linked nutrient inputs) combined with anthropogenic pressures on aquatic ecosystems (surface water acidification, alteration of natural habitats) could stimulate HAB occurrence and marine diseases in fisheries, aquaculture and marine life in general.

This session is aimed to summarize the existing understanding and gaps of knowledge about the future trends of the noxious events and their risks to aquaculture, fisheries and human and ecosystems health. The session has a transdisciplinary scope addressed to scientists, stakeholders, policymakers, and the public to find joint strategies to manage, mitigate and adapt to the impacts of these events in the future.

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S18: Coastal ecosystem and their blue carbon science, conservation and policy progress

Convenors:

Jorge Ramos
(Conservation International)

Kirsten Isensee
(IOC-UNESCO)

Dorothee Herr
(IUCN)

Invited Speakers:
TBA

Coastal and Marine Ecosystems (CMEs) - such as mangroves, tidal marshes, and seagrass meadows - mitigate the effects of climate change by sequestering carbon dioxide (CO2) into the vegetation and their surrounding soil from the atmosphere and oceans. CMEs also sequester carbon (blue carbon) at significantly higher rates than terrestrial forests and store three to five times more carbon per equivalent area than tropical forests. Accounting for the blue carbon sequestered in coastal ecosystems and the emissions resulting from ecosystem conversion has the potential to be a significant tool in promoting and sustainably financing marine management and conservation. Recently, there has been a rapid expansion of such blue carbon focused policy and management programs and opportunities from local to global scales largely resulting from ongoing development of coastal carbon research and synthetic science. For example: 1) advances through the Verified Carbon Standard now facilitates coastal wetland restoration projects access financing through voluntary carbon markets; 2) The 2013 Wetlands Supplement to the IPCC 2006 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories includes guidance for countries on integrating coastal blue carbon systems into their national GHG inventories; 3) a rapidly expanding portfolio and interest of coastal conservation and REDD+ projects globally focused in part on blue carbon; and 4) inclusion of coastal wetlands in countries national climate change commitments. A number of key scientific and technical issues related to carbon assessments and mapping, land use driven emissions, climate change and sea level rise impacts on coastal carbon budgets and carbon monitoring remain to be discussed. Here we describe recent blue carbon conservation and policy progress and the science research and tools that will be needed in the near future to support the protection and restoration of these ecosystems and with their climate change mitigation ecosystem service.

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Workshops

W1: Communicating and responding to climate change

Convenors:
Bryony Townhill (Cefas, UK)
Paul Buckley (Cefas, UK)
John Pinnegar (Cefas, UK)

Duration: 1-day workshop

This workshop focusses on the translation of research outputs into practicable actions that citizens and stakeholders can take to respond to climate change in the marine environment. If governments, industries, marine managers and members of the public are to take notice and put in place successful adaptation actions in the future, it is vital that the results of climate change research are effectively communicated to wider audiences outside of academia. Talks are welcome on initiatives that aim to bring together scientific information for a broad audience, to translate complex ideas and information into products that are useful to decision makers and practitioners. Also talks on the development of practical and applied approaches to risk assessment, adaptation implementation and building resilience of the marine environment and coastal communities.

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W2: Advances in Earth System Models (ESMs) for marine applications

Convenors:
Jasmin John (NOAA/GFDL, USA)
Takashi Mochizuki (JAMSTEC, Japan)
Michael Alexander (NOAA/ESRL, USA)

Invited Speaker:
TBA

Duration: TBA

Global climate and earth system projections contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have been pivotal in building our understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on oceans, marine ecosystems, and marine resources. Progress, however, has also been hindered by numerous model limitations. These include coarse grid resolution and uncertainties in (or limited resolution of) climate and earth system dynamics. The upcoming sixth phase of CMIP seeks to advance global climate and earth systems models through an internationally coordinated set of experiments by incorporating both a standard set of idealized and historical simulations as well as a broad suite of Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs), which will be of particular importance to the ocean science and marine ecosystem communities to advance understanding of ocean physics and biogeochemistry, and their role in climate processes, variability, future change, and impacts. The goal of this workshop is to share and exchange information on new and innovative ocean physical, biogeochemical, and ecological model developments and formulations incorporated into CMIP6 models and simulations and their relevance to marine applications. In particular, we invite submissions from colleagues across the international community describing CMIP6 model advances contributing to process understanding of climate and earth system change, variability, and predictability on broad timescales. Objectives of the workshop are to share the state-of-the-science in earth system model development between the earth system modeling and impacts communities, prioritize remaining modeling challenges to bridge understanding between these communities, and identify opportunities for synergistic collaborations.

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W3: Exploring potential ocean-based solutions to climate change impacts on marine biodiversity and ecosystem services

Convenors:
William Cheung (Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Canada)
Elizabeth McLeod (The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, USA)
Fiorenza Micheli (Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, USA)
Colette Wabnitz (Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Canada)

Duration: TBA

Marine biodiversity and ecosystems are now at a crossroads and the world is demanding effective solutions to mitigate and adapt to climate change to maintain natural services provided by the ocean. Therefore, this workshop will focus on exploring and examining potential ocean-based solutions to “avoid the unmanageable” and to “manage the unavoidable” risks from climate change on marine biodiversity and ecosystem services. These potential solutions may include mitigation and adaptation measures, nature- or technology- based, as well as for local and global scales.

Specifically, the workshop aims to discuss about the potential effectiveness of proposed or implemented solution options to moderate climate impacts, challenges and opportunities for their implementation, their implications for sustainable development, as well as research and policy agenda to make progress in meeting these challenges. The workshop will be multi-disciplinary (from natural to social sciences) and welcome the participation from academics, practitioners (e.g., international, government or non-governmental organizations) and private sectors (e.g., fishing, aquaculture, tourism). The workshop will include short presentations and group discussions. Specific outcomes will include a manuscript that is based on the discussion and findings of the workshop, and a proposal for a working group to further discuss the research and policy agenda identified from this workshop.

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W4: Climate change adaptation of fisheries and aquaculture: examples of field projects supporting countries and communities

Convenors:
Tarub Bahri (FAO)

Duration: 1/2 day

The workshop will present a series of field projects led by the Food and Agriculture Organization and other partners to support countries and fisheries-dependent communities adapt to climate change. The presentations will address different angles linking physical environment to social, economic and institutional aspects of climate change adaptation in different regions of the world (Caribbean, Africa, Asia and Latin America). The workshop will be the opportunity to provide details about the field projects and gather scientific and methodological inputs from the participants.

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W5: Climate Change and Fishing Communities: Interactions with Environmental Conservation, Sustainable Livelihoods and Food Security

Convenors:
Anthony Charles (Community Conservation Research Network & Senior Research Fellow, Saint Mary's University Canada)
Serge Garcia (Fisheries Expert Group, IUCN (CEM) Italy)
Daniela Kalikoski (Strategic Programme on Rural Poverty Reduction, FAO of the UN Italy)
Jessica Sanders (Fisheries and Aquaculture Department, FAO of the UN Samoa)

Invited Speakers:
Islam, Mohammad Mahmudul (Sylhet Agricultural University, Bangladesh)
Charles, Anthony (Community Conservation Research Network, Saint Mary’s University, Canada)
Kalikoski, Daniela (Strategic Programme on Rural Poverty Reduction, FAO of UN)
Rice, Jake (Emeritus), Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO)

Duration: TBA

This workshop examines how climate change both drives and exacerbates the multi-level imperatives of livelihood sustainability, food security and associated initiatives of community-based environmental conservation, within coastal fishing communities globally. Within that context, the workshop also explores the types of governmental and international programs and policies needed to effectively engage with and support small-scale fishery and coastal community stewardship and security, in the face of climate change. These goals will be met by drawing on experiences of three major international bodies – the FAO, the IUCN and the Community Conservation Research Network – around climate change interactions with fisheries and coastal communities.

The first part of the workshop will aim to “set the scene” through four diverse presentations (see below) that include both specific local case studies and global policy analyses, drawing on a range of scientific, practice and policy perspectives. The second component of the workshop will be a participatory analysis of key issues arising in the interactions of climate change with livelihood sustainability, food security and environmental conservation, within coastal fishing communities around the world. These issues will be identified by workshop participants, initiated through the insights of the four presentations as well as other research results of the workshop organizers.

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W6: Utilizing bioenergetics measurements and modeling to evaluate climate change effects on marine species and ecosystems

Convenors:
Myron Peck (Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Germany)
Kirstin Holsman (NOAA NMFS Alaska Fisheries Science Center, USA)
Janet Nye (School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, USA)

Invited Speaker:
Kenneth A. Rose (Center of Environmental Science, University of Maryland, USA)

Duration: 1 Day

Climate-driven changes in the mean, variance and interaction of key abiotic factors (e.g. water temperatures, extents of hypoxia, decreases in pH) will directly impact the distribution, fitness and abundance of species as well as alter energetic demands of consumers with reciprocal impacts on the food web. These effects are expected across all marine habitats and may be particularly pronounced at high latitudes. A physiological-based (cause-and-effect) understanding of the mechanisms underlying changes in the distribution, reproduction, and growth of fish is paramount for projecting the effects of climate change on these living marine resources as well as the knock-on (e.g. trophodynamic) effects at the community and ecosystem levels.

Advancements in bioenergetics-based modeling such as the inclusion of key physiological processes within individual-based, mass-balance, and ecosystem/food-web models, have provided a suite of tools for quantifying climate-driven changes in the distribution, abundance and productivity of fish stocks. For example, stage-specific and/or seasonal changes in the storage and allocation of food energy to growth and/or reproduction are depicted in dynamic energy budget models. These bioenergetics- based approaches can inform advice on the management of marine species and habitats under future climate change if outputs are deemed robust and can be incorporated within socio-economic models and management frameworks. The usefulness of these modelling tools depends, to a great extent, on structural assumptions and parameter estimates used to depict physiological and behavioural responses to changes in the mean, variance and interaction of key, abiotic factors and socio-economic drivers.

This workshop will include short presentations and discussion to (1) review state of knowledge on the effects of multi-stressor effects on vital rates (growth, feeding, survival, reproduction) of fish and the ability of bioenergetics-based models to capture observed patterns, (2) identify data requirements needed to better parameterize existing models for near-term forecasts and long-term projections (from single- to multi-species and ecosystem/end-to-end, and (3) discuss methods and case-studies for integrating the outputs gained from these bioenergetics-based models into biological ensembles and/or social-ecological system models and marine management frameworks. A review paper is planned on these topics.

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W7: What do seabirds reveal about the effects of climate change on the World’s Oceans?

Convenors:
William J. Sydeman (USA)
John F. Piatt (USA)
Yutaka Watanuki (Japan)
Joel Durant (Norway)
Robert Crawford/Lynne Shannon (South Africa)

Invited Speakers:
TBA

Duration: TBA

Seabirds are the most conspicuous marine organisms living at the interface of the atmosphere and the ocean, and due to sustained public interest, have been extremely well-studied for multiple decades at many key locations around the world. The information base on seabirds is thus rich and comprehensive, with substantial longevity. Recent reviews and meta-analyses indicate complex — often unexpected — responses of seabirds to various manifestations of climate change. When combined with concurrently collected data on local food fish stocks and fisheries, these same datasets have provided strong insights into the functional and numerical relationships between climate change, meso-predators, and prey, and therefore provide unique benchmarks for global climate impacts assessments. In this workshop, we seek to compare marine bird response to climate change across marine ecosystems and biomes, from the tropics to the Arctic and Antarctic, develop a mechanistic understanding of these responses, with an emphasis on connections between climate change and the availability of seabird prey (forage fish and crustaceans), and educate informed laypeople (including managers and policy-makers) of recent observations of apparent marine bird responses to climatic factors globally, including unprecedented massive seabird die-offs in many parts of the world. We anticipate two primary scientific products from this effort: (a) publication of a multi-authored volume based on the workshop in a speciality journal (e.g., Marine Ecology Progress Series or Global Change Biology), and (b) a comprehensive synthesis summarizing the state of knowledge concerning seabirds and climate interactions globally designed for a high impact journal (Science or Nature).

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W8: Connecting climate, ocean and ecosystem observation – Ocean observation futures

Convenors:
Jörn Schmidt (Kiel Marine Science at Kiel University, Kiel, Germany)
Sabrina Speich (Department of Geosciences, Ecole normale supérieure, Paris, France)
Fred Whoriskey (Department of Biology, University of Dalhousie, Halifax, Canada)
Daniele Iudicone (Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Naples, Italy)
John A. Barth (Marine Studies Initiative, Oregon State University, Corvallis, USA)

Invited Speaker:
Doug Wallace (Dalhousie University and Ocean Frontier Institute)

Duration: TBA

In the face of a changing ocean, we need to adjust our ocean observation systems to meet new needs. What do we need to know about the ocean-human system and what data do we need to collect to increase our knowledge and better manage its future development?

The workshop will bring together different ocean related observation communities to discuss the current capacities of each community, and how each forsees the future. Topics will include where we are in observing climate, ocean, eco- and human system related processes and variables, and how we are integrating across systems; what are climate, ocean, eco- and human system related objectives; what are major societal needs that the observing systems are addressing (e.g, ocean warming, changing dynamics, plastic litter, acidification, noise, overharvesting, biological observation); where do we need to adapt from where we are to achieve these goals; What are the major obstacles and what are the stepping-stones?

The workshop will address different levels of connectivity across technology levels, different disciplines, different temporal and spatial scales, different needs of stakeholders and the connectivity between national funding agencies and institutions.

It will not only address observational needs, but also the related research data infrastructure needs to connect data across all these levels including practical issues like standards and formats.

The product of the workshop will be a vision paper in a peer-reviewed journal and a one page summary for policy makers.

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W9: Vulnerability of Low Elevated Coastal Zones (LECZ) to SLR in changing oceans

Convenors:
Tarek M. El-Geziry (National Institute of Oceanography & Fisheries (NIOF), Alexandria, Egypt)
Sathaporn Monprapussorn (Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Srinakharinwirot University, Bangkok, Thailand)

Invited Speaker:
TBA

Duration: TBA

With a changing climate, sea level is also changing. The sea level rise issue is a critical issue, especially for the Low Elevated Coastal Zones (LECZ) worldwide. This workshop aims to focus on the impacts of the SLR on the LECZ, the vulnerability of these areas to the projected SLR rates, the related socioeconomic issues, in addition to the coastal risk factor and design.

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W10: Intercomparison of fisheries and marine ecosystem models

Convenors:
Olivier Maury (IRD, France)
Derek Tittensor (UNEP-WCMC, Dalhousie University, Canada)
Heike Lotze (Dalhousie University, Canada)
Eric Galbraith (Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Spain)
Tyler Eddy (University of British Columbia, Canada)

Invited Speaker:
TBA

Duration: TBA

The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FISH-MIP) is a component of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). This workshop will gather ecosystem modelers contributing or interested to contribute to FIshMip. Contributing models will be presented in detail and a typology will be drawn, based on theoretical underpinnings and numerical implementations. The first round of projections will be discussed in light of model's characteristics. New developments as well as future analyses will be discussed, including the use of socio-economic scenarios (typically SSPs) for forcing fisheries models. A simulation protocol combining the use of RCPs and SSPs will be established.

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