Study Group: Climate and Ecosystem Predictability
Statement of Purpose:

Building on the outcomes of Prior PICES WGs on North Pacific Climate (WG-27), Ecosystem Indicators (WG-28), and Regional Modeling (WG-29), and collaborations with CLIVAR, we propose a study group that use the knowledge gained on the mechanisms of Pacific climate, regional modeling, and ecosystem indicators to develop terms of reference for a new CLIVAR/PICES joint working group that will focus on climate and ecosystem predictions. Establishing this group, in collaboration with CLIVAR, will allow PICES to integrate CLIVAR expertise and interest in seasonal to decadal predictions.  The main goal for establishing a new working group would be to allow PICES to identify and quantify the skill of marine ecosystem predictability associated with climate-driven processes. Ultimately, the activities of this study group will lead to approaches that may facilitate some of the forecasting needs identified by the FUTURE integrative science program of PICES.

Terms of Reference
  1. Identify a set of North Pacific climate mechanisms that provide skill in predicting physical, chemical and biological processes that impact the marine ecosystem and its food web dynamics. The identified mechanisms might act on any of the following timescales: intra-seasonal, seasonal, interannual, decadal and climate change.
  2. Identify a set of North Pacific ecological indicators and/or marine ecosystem functional responses of fish and shellfish, which are impacted by the forcing processes identified in TOR1.  This step will connect the forcing processes identified in TOR-1 to population/ecological processes impacting harvested species in the North Pacific.
  3. Identify modeling frameworks for climate and ecosystem predictability. The SG will identify a set of modeling frameworks and existing model outputs (e.g. IPCC-class climate models) that can be used to evaluate the predictability dynamics identified in TOR 1 and 2. To do so, the SG will leverage outcomes and products developed by WG-29.
  4. Develop TORs for a potential new Joint PICES/CLIVAR working group on Climate & Ecosystem Predictability
  5. Showcase an example of short-term regional climate predictions. For PICES-2016 in San Diego, the SG will present an example of a short term prediction system that can be used to accomplish the science goals of FUTURE. This example will provide an important approach for developing predictions of different ocean ecosystems in the North Pacific.
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Members
Dr. Ian Perry (FUTURE-SSC, S-HD, SG-CEP)
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Pacific Biological Station
3190 Hammond Bay Rd.
Nanaimo, BC
Canada V9T 6N7
(1-250) 756-7137
(1-250) 756-7053
Ian.Perry@dfo-mpo.gc.ca
Prof. Xiaopei Lin (SG-CEP, WG-38)
Represents CLIVAR in SG-CEP
College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography
Ocean University of China
238 Songling Rd., Laoshan District
Qingdao, Shandong
China, PR 266100
(86-532) 66782853
(86-532) 66782853
linxiaop@ouc.edu.cn
Prof. Fangli Qiao (FUTURE-SSC, GC, POC, SG-CEP)
First Institute of Oceanography, SOA
6 Xianxialing Rd., LaoShan District
Qingdao, Shandong
China, PR 266061
(86-532) 8896-0055
(86-532) 88965544
qiaofl@fio.org.cn
Ms. Yajuan Song (SG-CEP)
First Institute of Oceanography, SOA
6 Xianxialing Rd., Hi-Tech Park, LaoShan District
Qingdao, Shandong
China, PR 266061
0532-88961876
songyj@fio.org.cn
Prof. Shoshiro Minobe (SG-CEP)
Earth and Planetary Sciences, Graduate School of Sciences
Hokkaido University
N10W8 Rigaku-8-goukan 3F
Sapporo, Hokkaido
Japan 060-0810
(81-11) 706-2644
(81-11) 706-2644
minobe@sci.hokudai.ac.jp
Prof. Kyung-Il Chang (CREAMS-AP, POC, SG-CEP)
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences
Seoul National University
Gwanak-599, Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu
Seoul, Korea, R 151-742
(82-2) 880-6747
(82-2) 872-0311
kichang@snu.ac.kr
Dr. Chan Joo Jang (POC, SG-CEP)
Ocean Circulation and Climate Research Center
Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST)
787 Haean-ro, Sangnok-gu
Ansan, Gyeonggi-do
Korea, R 15627
(82-31) 400-6317
(82-31) 408-5829
cjjang@kiost.ac.kr
Dr. Hyoun-Woo Kang (SG-CEP)
Physical Oceanography Division
Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology (KIOST)
787 Haean-ro, Sangnok-gu
Ansan, Korea, R 15627
(82-31) 400-7801
(82-31) 408-5823
hwkang@kiost.ac.kr
Dr. Nicholas A. Bond (SG-CEP, WG-35)
SG-CEP Chair
Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO)
University of Washington
Box 354925
Seattle, WA
U.S.A. 98195-4925
(1-206) 526-6459
(1-206) 526-6485
nicholas.bond@noaa.gov
Dr. Antonietta Capotondi (SG-CEP)
Represents CLIVAR in SG-CEP
Physical Sciences Division
University of Colorado
325 Broadway
Boulder, CO
U.S.A. 80305
(1-303) 497-6105
(1-303) 497-6449
Antonietta.Capotondi@noaa.gov
Prof. Emanuele Di Lorenzo (FUTURE-SSC, POC, S-HD, SB, SG-CEP)
SB Vice-Chair, POC Chair
Program in Ocean Science & Engineering
Georgia Institute of Technology
311 Ferst Dr.
Atlanta, GA
U.S.A. 30332
(1-404) 788-8035
edl@gatech.edu
Dr. Anne B. Hollowed (S-CCME, SG-CEP)
S-CCME Co-Chair
Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NMFS, NOAA
7600 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA
U.S.A. 98115-6349
(1-206) 526-4223
(1-206) 526-6723
Anne.Hollowed@noaa.gov
Dr. Ryan R. Rykaczewski (FUTURE-SSC, SG-CEP)
Represents CLIVAR in SG-CEP
Department of Biological Sciences
University of South Carolina
715 Sumter St., Earth & Water Sciences
Columbia, SC
U.S.A. 29208
(1-803) 777-8159
(1-803) 777-6610
ryk@sc.edu