Working Group 40: Climate and Ecosystem Predictability
Motivation and Goals:

To identify, diagnose and quantify predictable response in North Pacific marine ecosystems that arise from regional- and large-scale climate processes.

The North Pacific marine ecosystems are primary sources of ecosystem services for Russia, Canada, Japan, China, Korea and the US (e.g. fishing, shipping, and recreation). Long-term historical observations of physical and biological variables been collected around the North Pacific rim since the 1950s, leading to an excellent foundation for understanding the ecosystem impacts of dominant climate processes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the North Pacific, regional- and large-scale climate forcing impacts a wide range of physical and biotic processes including temperature, stratification, winds, upwelling, and primary and secondary production. Moreover, there is some predictability in the physical system on seasonal (Stock et al. 2015) and even longer (e.g., Qiu et al. 2014) times scales. Nevertheless, there has been no systematic and synergistic attempt to use this knowledge to forecast marine ecosystem responses to climate forcing, which is a primary goal of the PICES FUTURE science plan and CLIVAR. The new PICES working group will leverage the international expertise within PICES and foster more active interactions with CLIVAR to “identify, diagnose and quantify predictable response in North Pacific marine ecosystems that arise from regional- and large-scale climate processes.”

Terms of Reference
  1. Identify a set of North Pacific ecological indicators and/or marine ecosystem functional responses of fish and shellfish, which show predictable responses to large- and regional-scale climate forcing;
  2. Quantify the predictability of the regional ecosystem drivers that are controlled by large-scale climate variability and change;
  3. Identify dynamical and statistical modeling frameworks for climate and ecosystem predictability;
  4. Identify how and which ecosystem predictions can be integrated in the management of ecosystem services;
  5. Identify climate and ocean products that can be used to begin making predictions of North Pacific marine ecosystems;
  6. Outcomes and synergies with international efforts.
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Members
Dr. Ying Bao (WG-40)
First Institute of Oceanography
State Oceanic Administration
6 Xianxialing Rd., LaoShan District
Qingdao, China, PR 266061
86-0532-88961307
+86-0532-88961307
baoying@fio.org.cn
Dr. Fei Chai (WG-40)
Second Institute of Oceanography
State Oceanic Administration
36 Baochubei Rd.
Hangzhou, China, PR 310012
(1-207) 581-4317
(1-207) 581-4388
fchai@sio.org.cn
Dr. Masami Nonaka (WG-40)
WG-40 PICES Co-Chair
Climate Variability Prediction and Application Research Group
Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC
3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku
Yokohama, Kanagawa
Japan 236-0001
(81-45) 778-5496
(81-45) 778-5707
nona@jamstec.go.jp
Dr. Akinori Takasuka (WG-40)
National Research Institute of Fisheries Science
Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency
2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa
Yokohama, Kanagawa
Japan 236-8648
+81-45-788-7639
+81-45-788-7636
takasuka@affrc.go.jp
Dr. Chan Joo Jang (POC, SG-CEP, WG-40)
Ocean Circulation and Climate Research Center
Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST)
787 Haean-ro, Sangnok-gu
Ansan, Gyeonggi-do
Korea, R 15627
(82-31) 400-6317
(82-31) 408-5829
cjjang@kiost.ac.kr
Dr. MinHo Kwon (WG-40)
787, Haeanro
Ansan, Korea, R 426-744
82-31-400-7761
mhkwon@kiost.ac.kr
Prof. Chung Il Lee (WG-40)
Department of Marine Bioscience
Gangneung-Wonju National University
7 Jukhen-gil
Gangneung-si, Korea, R 25457
(82-33) 640-2855
(82-33) 640-2340
leeci@gwnu.ac.kr
Dr. Vladimir V. Kulik (MONITOR, SG-NPESR, WG-35, WG-36, WG-40)
Regional Data Center
Pacific Scientific Research Fisheries Center (TINRO-Center)
4 Shevchenko Alley
Vladivostok, Primorsky Kray
Russia 690091
(7-999) 057-99-69
vladimir.kulik@tinro-center.ru
Dr. Yury I. Zuenko (CREAMS-AP, POC, S-CCME, WG-35, WG-40)
POC Vice-Chair
Fisheries Oceanography
Pacific Scientific Research Fisheries Center (TINRO-Center)
4 Shevchenko Alley
Vladivostok, Russia 690091
(7-423) 2604-530
(7-423) 2300-752
zuenko_yury@hotmail.com
Prof. Emanuele Di Lorenzo (FUTURE-SSC, POC, S-HD, SB, SG-CEP, WG-40)
SB Vice-Chair, POC Chair
Program in Ocean Science & Engineering
Georgia Institute of Technology
311 Ferst Dr.
Atlanta, GA
U.S.A. 30332
(1-404) 788-8035
edl@gatech.edu
Dr. Michael Jacox (WG-40)
WG-40 PICES Co-Chair
Institute of Marine Science
University of California Santa Cruz / NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center
99 Pacific St. Ste. 255A
Monterey, CA
U.S.A. 93940
(1-831) 648-8536
mjacox@ucsc.edu
Dr. Samantha Siedlecki (WG-40)
University of Chicago
Wallace Hall, room 162
Chicago, IL
U.S.A. 60637
(1-206) 616-7328
(1-206) 685-3397
siedlesa@uw.edu