The North Pacific Ocean is rapidly changing due to an increasing number of stressors. This presents challenges for understanding, collaboration, and communication. More specifically: 1) What are the effects of human activities and climate change on ecosystems and the services they provide?, 2) Are there ways to improve collaboration among organizations and integrate a variety of knowledge sources to answer this question?, and 3) How can we communicate this knowledge effectively to the public? Climate change is an over-arching stressor that delivers a non-stationary background upon which other stressors act. Further, there are a wide variety of human stressors, such as fishing, aquaculture, microplastics/marine litter, invasive species, and shipping that can alter ecosystem structure, function, productivity, and biodiversity. Anticipating and detecting ecosystem responses to these stressors is a challenge, especially when responses may be non-linear and synergistic or antagonistic. Additional challenges include integrating the complexity of multiple spatial and temporal scales and incorporating climate change into sustainable ecosystem management. PICES provides a unique forum for collaboration among North Pacific member nations and other science organizations to address these challenges. There are, however, opportunities for further collaborations to better improve our understanding of the North Pacific, such as engagement with Indigenous people, citizen science programs, collaborative surveys, and coupled coastal - deep water oceanographic monitoring programs. Communicating the results of ecosystem science to the public and coastal societies is another area for advancement, as many scientists receive little or no training in communicating their results to a layperson audience or in two-way communication, where feedback can inform science.

We welcome submission of abstracts to S1 that address these integrative and complex issues. In particular, the PICES FUTURE (Forecasting and Understanding Trends, Uncertainty and Responses of North Pacific Marine Ecosystems) Integrative Science program would benefit from better information on: 1) the effects of human activities on coastal ecosystems, ecosystem services, and human societies; forecasting the effects of climate change on the distribution and productivity of species and communities; incorporating climate change, multiple stressors, and different temporal and spatial scales into sustainable resource and ecosystem management; tools to evaluate ecosystem response thresholds and common ecosystem reference points; and forecasting impacts of coastal stressors (e.g., microplastics, pollution, invasive species, shipping, aquaculture); 2) collaborative work with Indigenous people, with citizen science programs, with other science organizations, and across the western and eastern North Pacific; and 3) methods for more effectively communicating science to the public.

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Marine heatwaves have been occurring more frequently in recent decades and the biological impacts linked to these abnormally warm ocean temperatures have been making headlines, from sea cucumber die-offs in China to harmful algal blooms along the entire coast of North America. The occurrence of marine heatwaves can largely be explained by anomalous atmospheric conditions, however very little is known about the processes that cause marine heatwaves to persist or dissipate in the ocean. Thus, despite the damage marine heatwaves cause to the health of ocean ecosystems, their arrival, duration, and long-term impact has been difficult to predict without mechanistic knowledge of how they evolve. The focus of this session is to connect researchers studying the physics behind the evolution of marine heatwaves with those studying their impacts on coastal ocean properties and ecosystems, with the goal of improving predictions of future events. This session invites presentations on physical mechanisms that control the formation, spread, and dissipation of marine heatwaves, and on predictions of the future physical, chemical, and biological impacts of marine heatwaves in coastal regions. Presentations relevant to fisheries and aquaculture in the North Pacific are particularly encouraged.

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The coastal ocean is a dynamic, complex region where multi-scale processes interact and create conditions suitable for rich ecosystems. For instance, the combination of processes such as land and river runoff, local and remotely-forced upwelling, and wind and tidal mixing can bring nutrients to the surface waters, triggering high primary productivity rates. Coastal waters are subjected to the direct impact of human activities like fishing, aquaculture farming, wastewater runoff, etc. These anthropogenic perturbations along with other pressures exerted by climate change can lead to negative effects in the coastal ocean, such as pollution, hypoxia, ocean acidification, sea level rise, and loss of ecosystem biodiversity. Numerical models of the coastal ocean can be used to understand the physical and biogeochemical drivers in different regions, how these processes can change in the future, and what the implications of these changes are. The complexity of coastal regions, both in terms of geography and physical and biogeochemical dynamics, makes these modelling exercises challenging and region-specific. Nevertheless, commonalities can be drawn among different regions and models, such that the modelling community can benefit immensely by sharing experiences and results. Therefore, this session aims to bring together researchers interested in learning and discussing about the challenges and advances in coastal ocean models. We welcome contributions about any aspect related to these models, from applications in specific regions to regional intercomparisons, including hydrodynamics-only as well as coupled models (physical-biogeochemical, -ice, -sediments, etc.).

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The marine ecosystems of the North Pacific Ocean are connected by an international shipping and transportation network. Commercial shipping provides significant economic benefits and opportunities and the distribution and intensity of commercial shipping is increasing. There is a growing need to assess and mitigate the impacts of vessel activities on the marine environment to balance the benefits of this industry. Commercial and recreational vessel activities can produce stressors such as underwater noise, strikes, debris, aquatic invasive species, and chronic and episodic pollution. These impacts can act individually and together in space and time, resulting in cumulative effects – the collective effects caused by the combined results of past, current and future activities. Cumulative effects assessment is needed to address the sheer volume and frequency of vessel movements, the interaction and summation of multiple impact pathways, and cumulative effects through time. Vessel activities can have transboundary impacts and successful mitigation efforts require coordination and collaboration between trade partners. This session has links to the PICES Working Group on Emerging Topics in Marine Pollution (WG-31), the Advisory Panel on Marine Non-Indigenous Species (AP-NIS), and the Working Group on Marine Ecosystem Services (WG-41). The objective of the session is to convene expertise on the impacts of vessels and review the current state of knowledge and priority research needs for the future. Presentations will feature impacts of shipping-related stressors and applications of cumulative effects assessment frameworks, conceptual models, and management efforts related to marine shipping and vessel activities in the North Pacific. We solicit abstracts on both the perceived and documented environmental and socioeconomic impacts of marine transportation on marine ecosystems and coastal communities.

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Oceans and coastal ecosystems provide various ecosystem services to humans. However, ocean and coastal ecosystems are changing and showing trends in regional and synoptic scales responding to global climate change. It is urgent that we elucidate the mechanisms responsible for trends in ocean and coastal ecosystems and enable its future projections. We propose a topic session that involves participation from multiple PICES committees and focuses on trends in ocean and coastal ecosystems responding to global climate change. Specifically, we welcome presentations on topics such as (a) observational approaches to detect trends in ocean and coastal ecosystems, (b) elucidation of mechanisms of the ocean and coastal ecosystem responses, and (c) future projections of ocean and coastal ecosystems.

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Abrupt nonlinear change in ecosystem structure and function can dramatically alter human-derived benefits from the ecosystem and can have negative impacts on people’s livelihoods and well-being. A growing number of driver-response relationships in marine ecosystems are being identified as strongly nonlinear, indicating that they are potentially prone to inflection points and threshold dynamics. Better knowledge of where such thresholds occur might advance our ability to anticipate future conditions and critically inform what management actions can maximize ecological, social or economic benefits. Moreover, thresholds common across analogous systems can be used to develop robust reference points to prevent ecosystem components from tipping into undesirable states. We are interested in presentations on ecosystem indicators and thresholds, leading indicators of loss of resilience and ecosystem change, and the future of indicators, such as novel indicators from socioecological systems and examples of how indicators have been used in management. Transdisciplinary presentations are encouraged.

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Small fragments of plastic debris – known as meso- and microplastics – are pervasive in marine systems. These synthetic particles may transfer contaminants and pathogens to organisms that consume them; as such, meso- and microplastics are now considered hazardous, persistent marine pollutants. Sampling an entire system for debris is challenging; therefore, having environmental indicators of plastic debris is critical to assess the status and trends of plastic pollution in addition to predicting ecosystem risk and quantifying potential impacts. This session will identify and discuss potential organismal and non-organismal (e.g., sediments) indicators of small synthetic material in the marine environment, including the potential sources and input pathways of small plastic debris (e.g., wastewater effluent) to the North Pacific and its marginal seas. Presenters will also focus on indirect indicators of plastic pollution, such as plastic additives leading to chemical contamination in organismal tissues. A deeper understanding of these marine debris sentinels will help us elucidate the status and trends of small plastic pollution and their environmental impacts in the North Pacific and globally, thus allowing us to make informed decisions for plastic usage and litter management policies.

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Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEAs) are an adaptable approach to capture, understand, and communicate the diversity of interactions, ecosystem objectives, and resource trade-offs that occur within an ecosystem. While a core element of IEAs is the characterization of the natural ecosystem, humans are increasingly recognized as being central actors in most ecosystems, rather than an outside agent impacting the ecosystem. In this session, we are interested in elements of IEAs that capture how changes in the natural environment are being measured and the manner in which human activities are being incorporated into IEAs. IEAs have been implemented in a diversity of ecosystems in many PICES and ICES countries. In the United States, for example, IEAs are an important tool through which NOAA describes ecosystem trends and communicates the trade-offs of using marine resources for fisheries versus other uses. ICES, PICES and PAME have also recently worked to develop an IEA of the Central Arctic Ocean (WG 39). In addition, PICES scientists working in PAME have drafted practical guidelines for implementing the Ecosystem Approach across LMEs in the Arctic. Members and chairs of several ICES and PICES working groups are also active in IEA implementation. The goals of this session will be to 1) describe developments in IEAs across PICES countries and beyond, 2) identify opportunities to better integrate social and natural science in IEAs and communicate this with PICES scientists, and 3) discuss future directions for developing and comparing IEAs across PICES countries and LMEs, with the aim of building a foundation for further discussions at the MSEAS-2020 meeting in Yokohama. While the central focus of this session is IEAs, we also welcome presentations that demonstrate successes and challenges in interdisciplinary research. We also encourage submissions that discuss how climate impacts, including vulnerability analyses, can be effectively included in IEAs. We hope that the session will provide a roadmap for how social and natural scientists can more effectively work together in IEAs and in interdisciplinary projects in general. We will conclude the session with a discussion of next steps for IEA research in PICES countries.

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The goals of FUTURE require systematic and sustained observations of marine ecosystems, especially in the coastal regions where the interactions between humans and the marine environment are most intense. The goals also require the integration of physical, chemical and biological state of the ocean. The Advisory Panel on North Pacific Coastal Ocean Observing Systems is responsible for advising PICES on the linkages between coastal ocean observing systems and the PICES FUTURE Science Program, and the Pacific Ecosystem Status Report. We propose a Science Session that will assess the current state of coastal ocean observing systems in the north Pacific Ocean with respect to the biological and ecosystem Essential Ocean Variables (eEOVs) recently developed by the Global Ocean Observing System (Miloslavich et al 2018 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14108), and evaluate the potential for expanding the inclusion of eEOVs in coastal ocean observing in the North Pacific. The session will provide a basis for identifying gaps in observing systems relative to FUTURE’s goals of providing a synthesis of knowledge on : a) ecosystem resilience and vulnerability; b) ecosystems response to natural and anthropogenic forcing; and c) future ecosystem change. We invite contributions from researchers, community based monitoring programs, and data managers that will address the questions: 1) which eEOVs should be measured; 2) does the technology exist to make the required measurements in a systematic fashion; 3) how do we integrate eEOVs into current and future coastal ocean observing programs?

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The unusual warming of NE Pacific surface waters in 2014 produced intense stratification that inhibited vertical mixing, reducing the availability of major nutrients and essential trace metals to phytoplankton. Significant changes in phytoplankton ecology were also observed during this event. Large and persistent phytoplankton blooms, some of which may be associated with the production of algal biotoxins, are also becoming more frequent in the coastal waters of the eastern North Pacific, raising concerns as to the potential impacts of harmful algal blooms (HABs) and associated biotoxins on marine ecosystems. Some biotoxins (e.g. domoic acid) and other algal exudates (organic ligands) are known to bind trace metals like iron and copper, affecting their availability to phytoplankton. The goal of the proposed session is to bring together scientists from across the North Pacific who are working on related aspects of plankton ecology, marine biogeochemistry and climate research to investigate potential linkages between changes in the distribution of nutrients, phytoplankton, and algal exudates; how these may affect, and be influenced by, primary productivity and climate change; and possible implications for the long-term health of fisheries and ecosystems in coastal waters and the open ocean.

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Physical, biological and social components of marine ecosystems interact in complex ways through space and time, resulting in challenges for natural resource managers. Environmental variability and climate change can drive shifts in the spatial distribution and productivity of target and bycatch species. This can impact the effectiveness of stock assessment and management. Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) aims to address these issues by including environmental effects, species interactions, and other ecosystem-level processes in the management process for exploited species, in addition to fishing pressure. Ecosystem variables can be considered qualitatively in management advice by providing context about the state of the ecosystem or quantitatively in models that derive management-relevant quantities (e.g., allowable catch). However, despite the theoretical benefits of EBFM, most stock assessments and management measures still use single-species models with no ecosystem information incorporated. In this session, we seek examples describing how ecosystem variability and climate change have been considered in management advice qualitatively and/or quantitatively, or proposals on how management advice could consider those variables. Management applications could include the development or modification of stock assessment models, dynamic ocean management rules, bycatch mitigation, multi-species assessments, or other decision processes. This session will also address: how can qualitative information on ecosystem state be integrated with quantitative outputs from stock assessments? How can this information and the underlying uncertainties be effectively communicated to managers? In addition we seek examples of how decisions that consider ecosystem and climate variability and change have been or could be evaluated a priori (e.g., through management strategy evaluation) or retrospectively. Does management advice that accounts for theses variables result in better decisions? The session will begin with scientific presentations, followed by a discussion panel of scientists and natural resource managers, which will explore practical aspects of operationalizing EBFM, and promote exchange of ideas between the scientific and management communities.

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Mesoscale and submesoscale processes (with scales of 0.1 – 100 km) are widely distributed in the world’s oceans; from coastal regions to the open ocean. These phenomena can be examined using in-situ and satellite observations as well as high-resolution numerical models. However, there is still a lot to be learned about the detailed structure and dynamics of these fine-scale features. Studies indicate that mesoscale and submesoscale processes have a significant impact on horizontal heat and material transport, e.g. from coastal regions to the open ocean, as well as vertical transport, e.g. from subsurface to surface layers. The heat and material transport by mesoscale and submesoscale processes are important not only in the context of physics and chemistry, but also to marine ecosystems including plankton, nekton, birds and mammal. This topic session aims to discuss how the physics, chemistry, biology and fisheries of mesoscale and submesoscale processes interact and also how these processes mediate interaction between regions (lateral) and layers (vertical). We invite presentations based on both observations and modeling.

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Consumption by marine birds, mammals and fish has implications for ecosystem health and sustainability of fisheries. It has the potential to induce trophic cascades and influence the dynamics of species sought by fisheries—and has bearing on how fish, seabirds and marine mammals will adapt to climate change. However, there is uncertainty about how much they currently consume, how their consumption has changed over time, and whether or not they compete with fisheries and impede the recovery of threatened and endangered species. This topic session invites papers that address 1) decadal changes in prey consumption by marine birds, mammals and fish, 2) direct and indirect effects of consumption on food webs and species recovery, 3) impacts of climate change and inter-annual variability on food consumption, 4) the influence of prey quality on the health and dynamics of top predators, and 5) potential competitive interactions between fisheries and marine birds, mammals and fish. This session is the culmination of a 4-year project to document diets and estimate amounts of prey consumed by seabirds and marine mammals in the North Pacific. Presenters will be encouraged to submit manuscripts from this session to a special issue proposed in a leading scientific journal.

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While sustainable resource management is a commonly expressed goal, this means many different things to different people. From a narrow single-species biological perspective, sustainable management means adopting regulatory measures that ensure that stock and recruitment levels do not fall below acceptable levels. More holistic goals have been articulated in many contexts, such as in the National Research Council report on Sustaining marine fisheries (NRC 1999), which characterizes sustainable fishing as “fishing activities that do not cause or lead to undesirable changes in biological and economic productivity, biological diversity, or ecosystem structure and functioning from one human generation to the next; sustainable fishing does not lead to ecological changes that foreclose options for future generations”. Our experience has shown that fisheries policy that neglects social and economic considerations and objectives is unlikely to sustain fish, fishermen, or fishery-dependent communities and does not transparently consider the many goals of managers when they make decisions. This transdisciplinary approach has been embraced by ICES and PICES and is a central motivation for the MSEAS-2020 meeting. The session will also draw from the experiences of the ICES Strategic Initiative on the Human Dimension (SIHD). This session invites papers that address how we evaluate ecological, economic, and social goals in marine resource management. Possible specific topics include papers that 1) present examples of how social and economic goals have been integrated into fisheries management, 2) propose or discuss novel approaches to engage stakeholders in the specifying of management objectives, and 3) develop management tools to achieve those objectives. We welcome both empirical cases studies and more conceptual papers that illustrate how different countries or management agencies are approaching these challenges.

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Modern ocean and ecosystem models are rapidly developing the ability to make skillful forecasts of the physical, and more recently biogeochemical and higher trophic level, components of marine ecosystems at timescales from days to decades. Such forecasts often align with the tactical decision-making timescales of individuals, businesses, and governments, giving them significant potential to inform climate-ready management strategies. Much work has now been done to identify potentially predictable ecosystem components and to develop prototype forecast systems. This session will be a forum to learn and discuss how robust climate-ecosystem relationships are being (or can be) exploited for North Pacific marine ecosystem forecasts. We seek contributions that highlight recent advances in prediction of all earth system components that aid marine ecosystem forecasts, from physics to biogeochemistry, higher trophic levels, and potentially socioeconomic impacts (e.g., fish catch).

Presenters are encouraged to submit manuscripts from this session to a special issue proposed in a leading scientific journal.

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The Biological Oceanography Committee (BIO) has a wide range of interests spanning from molecular to global scales. BIO targets all organisms living in the marine environment including bacteria, phytoplankton, zooplankton, micronekton, benthos and marine birds and mammals. In this session, we welcome all papers on biological aspects of marine science in the PICES region. Contributions from early career scientists are especially encouraged.

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This session invites papers addressing general topics in fishery science and fisheries oceanography in the North Pacific and its marginal seas, except those covered by Topic Sessions sponsored by the Fishery Science Committee (FIS).

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This session invites papers addressing the promotion, coordination, integration and synthesis of research activities related to the contribution of the social sciences to marine science, and to facilitate discussion among researchers from both the natural and social sciences. We invite abstract submissions on any of these topics.

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Papers are invited on all aspects of marine environmental quality research in the North Pacific and its marginal seas, except those covered by Topic Sessions sponsored by the Marine Environmental Quality Committee (MEQ).

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Papers are invited on all aspects of physical oceanography and climate in the North Pacific and its marginal seas, except those covered by Topic Sessions sponsored by the Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee (POC).

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Papers that do not fit any other topic sessions / workshops.

As the integrative Science Program of PICES, FUTURE (‘Forecasting and Understanding Trends, Uncertainty and Responses of North Pacific Marine Ecosystems’) facilitates research on how marine ecosystems in the North Pacific respond to climate change and human activities, and on forecasting ecosystem responses to those stressors. Another key objective of FUTURE is to effectively communicate new insights of PICES science to its members, governments, stakeholders and the public, a skill that is not broadly shared among PICES scientists. It is challenging to convey the complex and integrative research undertaken by PICES scientists, but it is essential that results of ecosystem science are accessible to diverse audiences in order for our science to have a meaningful impact on society. That accessibility requires us as scientists to develop our own ability to communicate science concepts and research with outreach products. In this workshop, professional science communicators will provide training on how PICES scientists can effectively communicate their science to diverse audiences. Workshop participants are encouraged to come prepared to discuss and develop communication strategies for their own research activities, and to help identify outreach products for FUTURE and PICES to develop.
Note: for this communication workshop abstracts are not expected, nor will they be accepted. Instead, please indicate your interest in attending the Learn to Effectively Communicate workshop (W1) by sending us an email (please specify your name and country).

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The North Pacific Ocean is a large and productive ecosystem that is characterized by strong interdecadal climate variability. One of the key species in the North Pacific Ocean ecosystem is the Pacific halibut due to its wide distribution along the continental shelf throughout the North Pacific and to its important trophic position. In addition to its key ecological role, the Pacific halibut is highly relevant from a socio-economic and cultural perspective in the North Pacific Ocean region because it supports important commercial, recreational and ceremonial or subsistence fisheries. In the Northeastern Pacific Ocean, the Pacific halibut stock in waters off north American is managed by the International Pacific Halibut Commission (IPHC) that also conducts research on the biology of the species. Due to its highly migratory nature, its key ecological role and its wide distribution in the North Pacific Ocean, increased efforts are needed to expand and integrate information on the biology and the management of the Pacific halibut and interacting species across all countries involved in its fisheries, particularly in the face of a changing North Pacific. Therefore, the main objective of this Workshop is to provide state-of-the-art information on important current topics related to the biology and fishery of Pacific halibut and interacting species by bringing together researchers, scientists and managers from countries that are invested in this resource. The workshop will consist of a series of invited presentations on specific topics related to the biology of the Pacific halibut and interacting species as well as management and policy issues, followed by a discussion session on national and international research and management efforts that are currently in place as well as opportunities for establishing novel cooperative efforts at an international level.

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Sustainable fisheries development has been one of the most critical issues for marine sciences among PICES countries. Despite the obvious importance of this issue, it has been challenging to achieveecologically, economically, and socially balanced fisheries development in the PICES region. Given the complexity of the above three pillars for considering the issues related to sustainability of socio-ecological systems, serious games have increasingly proven their value in contributing to the analysis and design of such systems. One of the most significant examples among numerous projects is the series of MSP (Marine Spatial Planning) games which have been developed through EU transdisciplinary marine science platforms at an ICES Workshop, November 2011. Thus, serious games are now recognized as an influential tool to promote discussion on the sustainable use of marine resources among scientists, policy makers, business sectors, NGO/NPOs and local communities. Given this trend, we propose a serious game workshop focused on sustainable fisheries development, where we will play a game among policy makers, citizens, business sectors and PICES scientists to enhance the discussion on sustainable fisheries development in the North Pacific region. In this workshop, participants will be able to see the most significant challenges and opportunities to tackle this issue by discussing the background, design and playing process of the game. It is expected that this workshop will enhance the participant’s understanding of potential similarities and differences of sustainable fisheries among PICES countries, which could lead to new research, education, and outreach projects among them.

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The western North Pacific, one of the areas of the global ocean most affected by climate change and anthropogenic activities, consists of several marginal seas. Two time series programs have contributed to significant advances in understanding of these seas/regions, named East Asian Seas Time-series (EAST-I and EAST-II regions) since the CREAMS (Circulation Research of East Asian Marginal Seas) program was initiated beyond the national borders several decades ago (early 1990s). This workshop will provide a forum for summarizing progress made during the decades of CREAMS and during the 15 years of the PICES Advisory Panel (AP-CREAMS; active since 2005), and for envisioning the future of CREAMS over the coming decades. This workshop is an opportunity to share the knowledge/findings and experience/lessons learned in hydrodynamics, biogeochemistry, ecosystem, and fisheries variability at multiple scales in the regions. We seek contributions from studies including, but not limited to, weakening of ventilation and decrease of dissolved oxygen in deep waters, eutrophication and development of hypoxia and acidification, changes of biological community structures, mixing and use of tracers as new methods, observational capabilities, and more. We will also discuss remaining issues, capacity building, new challenges, and future CREAMS plans during this workshop.

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The North Pacific Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Survey marks its 20th year of collecting data in 2019. This workshop is a chance to celebrate the achievements of the first PICES project at the end of its first two decades and perhaps more importantly, to look forward to the next. We encourage presentations that present and review the results and diversity of applications resulting from the project to date. There have been 25 primary publications utilizing the North Pacific CPR data, spanning large scale oceanography based on satellite data, climate variability and trophic relationships with fish and birds as well as plankton-only foci. The workshop also invites presentations on what could be done with the CPR data and/or sample archive that are particularly relevant to the PICES community. Examples may include; further developments of past studies, developing indicators, or metrics for inclusion in ecosystem models, expansion to new parts of the PICES region, integration of plankton data with remote sensing, molecular analyses on specific taxa, or other novel analyses of the samples. One invited speaker will be asked to give a presentation on such a subject. The workshop will end with a discussion on future priorities for the survey, which will be summarized afterwards in a PICES Press article. It is hoped that these discussions will guide the development of the survey and its priorities over the next few years.

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The PICES Working Group on Marine Ecosystem Services (WG-MES/WG 41) was established to facilitate exchange of information and share the experiences and approaches used to identify, measure, value, and use marine ecosystem services (MES) information in North Pacific waters in order to promote ecosystem service science and improve the consideration of MES in decision making related to marine integrated management. To accomplish this, the working group is conducting two projects. One task is to review the range and types of MES found in the North Pacific region and compares the methods used to measure and value them using case studies for a subset of MES across countries. The second is a survey project that will collect information, opinions and experiences from resource managers, researchers, policy analysts and decision makers from multiple North Pacific countries. The information collected will provide country-specific insights into how MES information is valued and utilized in decision making, and provide guidance on prospects and potential for future use and integration in policy analyses and decision processes. The results of the survey should identify challenges and opportunities for improving the utility of MES information. This workshop has two primary goals: (1) to share and synthesize results of country-specific reviews of the MES literature in the North Pacific region and (2) to update progress on development of the survey to collect information on the knowledge, current and future utilization, challenges, and opportunities related to MES ecological, economic, and sociocultural information. To this end, the workshop presentations will focus on the progress and results for the working group’s projects. Although the focus of the workshop presentations and discussion are on the working group’s activities, other interested scientists interested in MES are highly encouraged to attend and participate.

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The Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) is experiencing a rapid transition, largely driven by a changing North Pacific, that has led to substantial recent loss of sea ice cover, which has opened up the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) for potential fishing opportunities. Debate and policy initiatives have already been launched for regulating fisheries that have not yet been implemented in the CAO. Scientific research in the CAO remains too scarce to inform and support policy decisions, in stark contrast to the abundance of research occurring in the neighboring North Pacific which informs and influences policy decisions. With substantial science and policy challenges present in the CAO, an integrated ecosystem assessment is a priority task. PICES joined with ICES and PAME for such an assessment by forming PICES WG-39 with its mission period ending in 2018. WG-39, despite its late start, intends to provide significant Pacific input into the final joint report expected toward the end of 2018. We also have an intersessional workshop in 2019. As a follow-up to these activities, a half day workshop is proposed to consolidate our findings and advice, connect it to those from ICES, and to report to the wider PICES community. The major emphasis of the third CAO workshop at PICES 2019 will be key locations in the Pacific Arctic and the critical processes to determine biological production, the characterization of major changes for recent decades, and the ramifications for ecosystem monitoring and management in the region. Ultimately, needed is sustainable monitoring by ice breakers and research ships in the CAO with coordination among PICES and ICES countries, including both Arctic and non-Arctic nations. One of the tasks for WG39 is to search for and make use of existing datasets and databases, aided by the general findings of previous reports and literature surveys encompassing the regions.

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Fixed and mobile echosounders offer greater temporal and vertical resolution for surveying and monitoring zooplankton and fish than traditional net sampling. Our ability to extract biological information from echosounder backscatter has improved over the last two decades with the continued development and more widespread use of these instruments. Technical advancements include (1) the use of continuously powered (fixed-cabled) instruments for high-resolution, long term time-series, and (2) improvements in multi-frequency and broadband instruments for fixed and mobile platforms that increase discrimination of backscatter targets on the basis of size, shape and in some instances, species. The goals of this workshop will be to share information on active acoustic biological monitoring programs in the North Pacific, and to form a community of practice to advance and promote use of this tool for ecosystem monitoring. We encourage contributions describing (1) existing or proposed monitoring programs, (2) instrument-specific applications, (3) approaches for size-class or species identification, (4) assessment of broader-scale trophic interactions, (5) tools for processing large-volume acoustic data sets, and (6) theoretical/modelling studies which take advantage of active acoustics data-sets.

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Globally, marine non-indigenous species (NIS) introductions continue due to an increasing number of human-mediated vectors (e.g., shipping, recreational boating, aquaculture-related movements) and pathways that are connecting previously discrete marine ecosystems. Once introduced outside their native range, NIS can significantly reduce native biodiversity and ecosystem goods and services thereby negatively affecting coastal communities and economies. Management of new incursions is often most effective when NIS are detected early when populations are small and spatially constrained. One approach to early detection of new invaders or tracking the spread of existing invaders relies on the establishment of effective monitoring programs that consider the type of species/taxa most likely to be introduced and the areas they are most likely to be introduced to (such as ports and marinas) or vulnerable/sensitive areas (such as Marine Protected Areas). There is a long history of marine invasions in the North Pacific and among PICES member countries early detection monitoring programs for NIS are likely to vary. In this workshop we will explore the types of NIS monitoring programs that are in place (or are being planned) with a focus on the North Pacific. This workshop will include both traditional monitoring techniques (i.e., settlement plates, trapping or beach surveys) and more recent molecular approaches (i.e., high-throughput sequencing, qPCR). By reviewing the strengths and weaknesses of these various NIS monitoring approaches/programs we aim to identify best practices for NIS monitoring in the North Pacific thereby informing one of AP-NIS’s Terms of Reference.

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Material and energy transfer in the lower food web are integrated through zooplankton communities. The standing stock and productivity of this group represent a proxy for the functional response of marine ecosystems to regional and global climate change. A variety of methods and information on zooplankton production rates have been assembled over the past half century, however, we still struggle to evaluate zooplankton productivity and its driving forces. This workshop will discuss prospective tasks and collaborative research activities in an effort to improve and standardize zooplankton field (and laboratory) methods from both PICES and ICES nations. We encourage presentations and discussion on novel applications of traditional and biochemical methodologies and/or new approaches for evaluating zooplankton productivity in the field.

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This workshop is the inaugural joint activity to advance collaboration between PICES and NPFC. Under the proposed PICES-NPFC Framework for Enhanced Scientific Collaboration, the theme area of stock assessment support was identified as a priority area for future collaborative work. Pacific saury is a priority species for NPFC, and one that has experienced large fluctuations over the past several decades. Members of the NPFC have reported catches ranging from 124 to 629 kilotons between 1950 and 2017 with an average of 350 kilotons. In 2017, catch was reported to be 216 kilotons. The NPFC Technical Working Group on Pacific Saury Stock Assessment first met in 2017 to determine stock status by employing a Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic model; however consensus on stock status among members could not be reached in 2018. Collaboration of PICES and NPFC may enable recommendations for employing alternate models that incorporate environmental and ecosystem variables that might better explain stock fluctuations and predictions of stock abundance and distribution in space and/or time. The objectives of the workshop are to (1) provide an overview of environmental changes in areas that overlap Pacific saury distributions, (2) identify time periods with significantly different conditions (e.g., regime shifts) that could influence the abundance of Pacific saury, (3) outline projections and associated uncertainties of changes in habitat suitability for saury, and (4) propose mechanisms for further research to understand the interaction of ecosystem changes on Pacific saury distribution and associated consequences on estimating abundance.

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The potential for resource (food) competition between large predatory fish, marine mammals, seabirds, and fisheries is a long-standing concern in many marine ecosystems globally, but it is extremely difficult to study and document. These top predators and fisheries may target similar resources (e.g., small pelagic fish and euphausiid crustaceans), but simple overlap in prey species, consumptions and landings is insufficient to document competition. For example, changes in the forage fish and mesozooplankton populations targeted by both fisheries and upper trophic level predators may be primarily forced by climate more so than by consumption by top predators or harvest by fisheries. In this workshop, we seek presentations on the evidence and the non-evidence of resource competition between large predatory fish/squids, marine mammals, seabirds, and fisheries within PICES regions. We will review these works and conduct discussions on the best scientific approaches to document resource competition between these top predators and fisheries. This workshop will contribute to S-MBM program on Climate and the Trophic Ecology of Marine Birds and Mammals, production of comprehensive PICES North Pacific Ecosystem Status Reports, as well as interface with the fundamental goals of FUTURE to understand and predict the interaction of climate and anthropogenic factors on marine ecosystems.

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WG-36 on “Common Ecosystem Reference Points across PICES Member Countries” is addressing PICES FUTURE Science Program’s research theme question: “How do ecosystems respond to natural and anthropogenic forcing, and how might they change in the future?” Strong nonlinearities in marine ecosystems indicate the existence of thresholds beyond which small changes in pressure variables can cause large responses in other ecosystem components. Better knowledge of where thresholds occur can advance our ability to anticipate future conditions and critically inform what management actions can maximize ecological, social or economic benefits. Moreover, thresholds common across analogous systems can be used to develop robust sets of reference points to prevent ecosystems from shifting into undesirable states. The purpose of this workshop is to finalize WG 36 TOR-4: “Determine shapes or functional forms of driver - response relationships from available datasets, and to quantify thresholds to identify potential ecosystem reference points”. WG 36 convened a workshop at PICES-2018 for which members built a GitHub repository. This GitHub repository includes R code for single pressure GAMs, dynamic factor analyses (DFA), and gradient forest approaches. Participants from each PICES member nation ran the R code on a California Current dataset, and then expanded analyses to country-specific indicators. The working group will meet intersessionally in 2019 to advance progress on TOR-4, and to be more prepared to complete the full set of objectives of the WG at the hands-on practical workshop proposed for PICES-2019. The practical workshop is for WG 36 members and other interested participants to (1) compare results of the threshold quantification analyses, (2) refine the analyses based on group feedback, (3) examine model diagnostics , (4) complete additional analyses using gradient forest and DFA approaches, (5) identify next steps, and (6) document the analyses completed and the R code used.

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Molecular ecology has developed rapidly over the last decade, opening up possibilities for a wide range of applications in marine and fisheries science. This workshop will focus on two aspects of molecular ecology that have the potential to significantly advance the current state of our knowledge: (1) Environmental (e)DNA – all organisms release genetic material into the environment as they move through it. The ability to detect this free DNA in water samples is revolutionizing our ability to determine species occurrence, with applications in biodiversity monitoring, invasive species tracking and community ecology; and (2) Food web ecology – traditional methods of diet analysis involving microscopy having been essential to characterizing the diets of all levels of the marine food web. They allow quantification of dietary contributions and digestion state, however, they are time consuming and are not suitable for identifying heavily digested or fragile prey, and challenging to apply to smaller organisms (e.g., zooplankton) hindering our ability to resolve the diets and trophic connection of lower trophic levels. Molecular approaches provide a means to assess entire dietary content for all organism types and size classes. We are seeking applicants to this workshop who are conducting research in the fields of eDNA and trophic ecology. We invite contributions on diverse taxonomic groups and from diverse ecosystems, covering topics including invasive species, community ecology, organism diets, and biodiversity monitoring. As a developing field, we invite contributions on method development, new applications, and calibration studies (e.g., eDNA trawl catch comparisons). We will discuss the current status and future trends of molecular approaches in the fields of eDNA and trophic ecology. Through this workshop we aim to connect researchers applying molecular approaches in the North Pacific, to facilitate international collaborations and coordinated development in the North Pacific region.

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The two tools typically used for understanding and predicting ecosystem change are 1) dynamical models that simulate the important processes, and 2) statistical models that exploit straightforward relationships observed between parameters of interest. Outside of marine science, the newly dominant approach to finding important relationships between parameters in large data sets and predicting future behavior is a family of techniques that go by the names machine learning, artificial intelligence, and neural networks. While easy to use programming tools are available, machine learning techniques are not widely used in marine science. However, given their growing importance in finance, automotive industry, advertising, and now potentially earthquake prediction, it is time to investigate the potential for their application to the goals of PICES FUTURE Science Program. The goal of this workshop is to find researchers interested in pursuing the applications of machine learning to ecosystem change issues in the North Pacific and to develop a work plan. Participation will be sought from as wide a community as possible. The outcome of the workshop should be a proposal for a PICES Study Group. Another possible outcome is a joint ICES/PICES Working group.

The details of the structure of the workshop on "Machine Learning" are still under development. We would like to know who plans to attend so that we can get your input. If you are attending the workshop please REGISTER for the PICES meeting and confirm your W15 attendance by emailing W15 the corresponding convener Charles Hannah. In addition, if you would like to give a talk in the workshop, please submit an abstract via the regular process on the PICES website.

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The high-seas pelagic ecosystems of the North Pacific support five species of Pacific salmon and Steelhead trout as well as associated species including saury and North Pacific Armorhead. Communities and resource managers around the Pacific rim are challenged to understand and forecast the impacts of an increasingly uncertain climate on the distribution and productivity of these culturally and economically important fishes. New knowledge is required to determine how climate uncertainty is affecting distribution and productivity across scales from coastal to high seas and how human intervention with hatchery production impacts the structure of North Pacific ecosystems in relation to carrying capacity. The NPAFC along with NGO’s, government, academic and private partners as part the International Year of the Salmon, have initiated a high seas expedition with scientists from around the Pacific rim in winter 2019. This expedition will begin to address gaps in our knowledge through survey work of salmon, plankton, and physical conditions in the central Gulf of Alaska. The intention is that this effort will lead to a program of coordinated integrated surveys across the entire North Pacific that will allow us to test hypotheses related to mechanisms affecting salmon productivity and to provide timely forecasts and advice. A workshop is proposed to convene salmon/fish specialists, oceanographers, climatologists and resource managers to review the progress made during the March 2019 survey and recommend the core elements of a pan-Pacific high seas ecosystem research survey program that would be implemented through 2022 to assess the ocean/climate mechanisms affecting salmon distribution and productivity. A PICES Scientific report will document the proceedings including review of 2019 findings, requirements for future monitoring surveys and approaches to integrating data for salmon and ocean observations across multiple platforms as well as approaches to outreach/engagement to managers and other audiences. Popular articles will be published in the PICES press and posted to the IYS website.

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Preparing an Integrated Ecosystem Assessment for the Northern Bering-Chukchi Seas Large Marine Ecosystem (LME) is necessary to provide scientific advice on issues such as the prospect for future fisheries in the Arctic, vulnerability to increased shipping activities, impacts of oil and gas development, and consequences of climate change. The potential impacts of climate change on Arctic marine mammals and seabirds, many of which provide subsistence resources for local and indigenous communities is also a growing concern. A workshop focusing on scoping an IEA of the Northern Bering-Chukchi Seas LME has been proposed to:

1. Review recent research, activities and priorities related to an IEA of Arctic Ecosystems
2. Review the scientific interest, data availability and overall feasibility of conducting such an IEA for the Northern Bering-Chukchi Sea region
3. Assess the opportunities to partner with other organizations to address the issues identified above
4. If the above activities demonstrate the feasibility of conducting an IEA of the NBS-Chukchi Seas LME, then Terms of Reference for a Study Group or possibly a Working Group would be developed for PICES consideration.

The purpose of the workshop proposed will be to assemble experts in the Northern Bering-Chukchi Sea LME and also in Integrated Ecosystem Assessment in other systems (such as ICES areas (e.g. Barents Sea, Norwegian Sea), the SE Bering Sea and the California Current). The experts will review the interest, data availability and overall feasibility of conducting an IEA in the proposed ecosystems. We invite contributions on ecosystem surveys and research activities in the Northern Bering-Chukchi Seas LME. We also invite contributions on IEA in other ecosystems, lessons learned and best practices. The result of the workshop will be a report and a recommendation regarding the feasibility of conducting an IEA in the proposed area and suggestions for Terms of Reference for a PICES Working Group (possibly joint with ICES and the Joint EA-EG led by PAME) to conduct the IEA.

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Over the last 2 decades, several reports have compiled what is known about the economic effects of harmful algal blooms. Most coastal regions have neither conducted economic analyses of HABs nor collected data that can be used to generate reliable quantitative estimates of net economic losses and economic impacts. Better estimates of the economic impacts of HABs will require coordination among HAB scientists and economists.

This is a 2.5 day international workshop to bring together expertise in the science of HABs and economics to review and analyze case studies for the study of economic impacts of HABs on fisheries and aquaculture. The workshop structure is:

Day 1 (1/2 day): Overview of Economics and HABs, Analysis of U.S. west coast impacts. The discussion will be focused on types of economic assessment that will guide our discussions of case studies on workshop day 2.

Day 2 (full day): Case studies: examples of HAB impacts to wild fisheries, recreational fisheries and aquaculture worldwide. The discussions will be focused on what economic studies can be done in the future and where the data gaps are.

Day 3 (full day): Mitigation strategies, Value of Information. The discussions will be focused on the value of HAB forecasts. Wrap up and writing assignments.

The output of this workshop will be a compendium of examples describing economic approaches used to estimate the costs of HABs and their mitigation, focusing on establishing connections between HAB scientists and economists. A shorter version of the compendium may be prepared for submission to a journal. In addition, the workshop will (1) propose priorities for research and effective management in the future, (2) develop partnerships between economists and HAB researchers to develop transdisciplinary projects, and (3) attract resources to the field.

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Mariculture, especially large-scale mariculture, is an important factor affecting coastal ecosystems. In PICES Scientific Report No. 44, a previous PICES expert group (Working Group 24 on Environmental Interactions on Marine Aquaculture) provided analyses and overviews of the following: (1) Environmental Interactions of Marine Aquaculture, (2) Marine Aquaculture Legislative Frameworks and Environmental Interactions Research and (3) Pathogens of Aquatic Animals: Detection, Diagnosis and Risks of Interactions Between Wild and Farmed Population. While this was an important contribution and a sound basis on which to proceed, there is much more research needed to characterize the effects of pathogenic and harmful organisms derived from or associated with mariculture on coastal marine ecosystems, consistent with FUTURE Research Theme 3. The Study Group will leverage the international expertise within PICES and partner organizations to “identify the impacts in coastal ecosystems that arise from regional- and large-scale mariculture”. The rather cautious “Study Group leading to a Working Group” approach was selected in response to previous challenges and recommendations from Working Group 24, specifically: i) any future marine aquaculture-related PICES expert group should be more narrowly focused to not only allow for more directed work, but also to increase the likelihood of experts from all PICES member countries being able to participate and contribute, and ii) it is clear that active participation from all PICES member countries is key to realizing a complete analysis of sustainable marine aquaculture issues. Goals of the workshop are to (1) review recent research, activities and priorities related to the effects of pathogenic and harmful organisms derived from mariculture on coastal marine ecosystems in PICES nations, (2) assess the opportunities to partner with other organizations to address the issues identified above, and (3) prepare Terms of Reference for a Working Group to address the issues identified. Where appropriate, the workshop discussions might identify opportunities for future PICES expert groups to address issues related to the impacts of aquaculture that have not been previously explored.

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