PICES is well-positioned as a northern hemisphere leader of multi-national collaborations to further our understanding of the ocean’s natural systems, to contribute “the science we need for the ocean we want” for the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development. The international scientific platforms and cooperation mechanisms that PICES scientists have created with organizations and individuals from around the world will now be expanded to strengthen ocean science research and collaboration among countries in the Northern and Southern hemispheres. This will further our scientific progress in understanding climate change impacts, ecosystem-based fisheries management approaches, biologically-driven ocean carbon sequestration, and regional integrated ecosystem assessments including social, ecological and environmental dynamics of marine systems and coastal communities.

Strategies for communicating our science and applying scientific building blocks toward solutions to mitigate the impacts of climate change are also critical for preserving our oceans and the coastal communities that depend upon its bounty. Papers that describe these broad scientific ideas and also incorporate strategies to facilitate PICES Ocean Decade cross-cutting inclusivity themes relating to gender equality, early career ocean professional engagement, and significant involvement of indigenous communities and developing nations are encouraged.

Climate change and compounding anthropogenic pressures pose a risk to marine social-ecological systems. Of increasing concern is the potential for systems to rapidly shift (often irreversibly) to new states in response to pressures. In some cases, such shifts can occur abruptly without much warning, despite years of mounting pressure and apparent system resilience. These nonlinear inflection points in pressure-response relationship, -- i.e. “tipping points”--, are defined by the IPCC SR15 as “critical thresholds in a system that, when exceeded, can lead to a significant change in the state of the system, often with an understanding that the change is irreversible.” Identifying singular or compound, nonlinear, or contextual tipping points is of paramount importance to the IPCC as the likelihood of crossing tipping points increases with atmospheric carbon, climate instability, and ecological sensitivity, posing a significant risk for ecological and human wellbeing. Tools and methods for managing systems prone to tipping points are important for national, regional, and local resource management and climate adaptation. While identifying tipping points is challenging, there are multiple recent approaches that advance this objective, especially in terms of multivariate tipping points. We propose a topic session that will a) explore emergent tools and approaches for identifying multivariate thresholds and tipping points, 2) explore existing and potential social and ecological tipping points and responses, and 3) review approaches for managing systems prone to tipping points. This topic session will bring together international experts from oceanographic, ecological, and social sciences to compare methodologies and synergies across systems. Of particular focus will be methods to promote adaptation and resilience to climate change in marine systems increasing pushed towards extremes and tipping points.

The ocean circulation is characterized by turbulence on a wide range of scales from a few centimeters to thousand kilometers. The energy balance is achieved by transferring energy from planetary-scale forcing to microscale dissipation. One of the major efforts that have been made during the recent decades is to understand how the energy is transferred from mesoscale, submesoscale to small-scale turbulence. In particular, a full spectrum of oceanic submesoscale works bridge the gap between mesoscale and small-scale by discovering forward energy cascade at this range. The submesoscale dynamics are most active in the upper ocean. They are spawn in the mesoscale eddies generated by large-scale flow instability, or near the ocean front including plume front in the coastal water. The predictability and sensitivity of the numerical forecast models that include such processes is still unclear. This session invites all studies from mesoscale, submesoscale to small-scale (including surface/internal waves, boundary layer processes, etc) that contribute to the understanding of energy cascade in the PICES region as well as their applications in the ocean prediction system. We also welcome research about the impact of those processes on the transport of heat, carbon or other biologically or climatically important tracers in the upper ocean.

The UN Decade of Ocean Science says that “the Decade will bolster scientific research and innovative technologies to ensure science responds to the needs of society”, and indicates the following six specific needs from the society to the ocean science; 1) A clean ocean where sources of pollution are identified and removed, 2) A healthy and resilient ocean where marine ecosystems are mapped and protected, 3) A predictable ocean where society has the capacity to understand current and future ocean conditions, 4) A safe ocean where people are protected from ocean hazards, 5) A sustainably harvested ocean ensuring the provision of food supply, and 6) A transparent ocean with open access to data, information and technologies. Clearly, each need includes the academic questions/issues closely relating to the human dimensions. For example, what is the “clean” or “healthy” ocean? Who will decide it? What kind of “predictability” or “safety” do we need? How can “transparency” be achieved? Are they different among countries or societies? What is the cross-scale compatibility from the human community level to the Pacific Basin level? How much can the society pay for that?, etc., etc. This Topic Session welcomes studies about these questions/issues. Based on the oral presentations, we will have discussions about how the human dimension researches can link and add values to the natural science research activities to meet above six societal needs. The outcome of this Topic Session is expected to show the direction of PICES HD Committee activities in the next decade.

Atmospheric deposition is an important nutrient source for marine ecosystems, with consequences for local, regional, and global biogeochemical cycles, as well as the climate system. This session focuses on natural and anthropogenic atmospheric nutrient inputs to the North Pacific Ocean. Microbial communities respond to SB-2019 SB 19 changing atmospheric inputs, which may result in significant effects on the marine carbon and nitrogen budgets, as well as on atmospheric carbon dioxide uptake. Key questions to be addressed within this theme are: How do biogeochemical and ecological processes interact in response to natural and anthropogenic material input from the atmosphere across costal and open ocean regions? How do global warming, ocean acidification, and other anthropogenic stressors synergistically alter the uptake of atmospheric nutrients and metals by marine biota in different oceanic regions? What is the prognosis for the future? We welcome new interdisciplinary presentations and active discussions on physical, chemical, and biological sciences both from the ocean and atmospheric fields in this session.

Ocean deoxygenation is the loss of oxygen in the ocean resulting from ocean warming, which reduces oxygen solubility and increases oxygen consumption and stratification, thereby reducing the mixing of oxygen into the ocean interior. Ocean deoxygenation exacerbates coastal hypoxia and the expansion of oxygen minimum zones globally. Hypoxia is known as a severe threat to ocean ecosystems and fisheries resources, in both offshore and coastal regions. Decreasing oxygen in seawater is caused by several processes such as increase of water temperature, changing ocean circulation and stratification, changes in production and remineralization of organic matter, and coastal eutrophication. The main cause of oxygen decline varies regionally, and sometimes multiple processes contribute. Multiple causes make it difficult to get a comprehensive understanding of ocean deoxygenation at the various scales from coastal regions to ocean basins. PICES S-CC is planning a new program to collect an inventory of oxygen monitoring programs, as well as data and knowledge obtained from them, that are ongoing among the PICES countries. At the commencement of this program, we convene this session to gather information on ongoing ocean deoxygenation and oxygen variability studies and the resulting scientific knowledge, in both the coastal and offshore North Pacific . For this purpose, we encourage attendees to present studies of detection of deoxygenation, as well as causes of oxygen variability, at the various scales from coastal regions to ocean basins in this session. We also welcome studies of impacts of deoxygenation and hypoxia on ocean ecosystems and/or fisheries.

Marine ecosystems of the North Pacific are susceptible to episodic, extreme events of various types, including marine heatwaves, periods of hypoxia/anoxia or corrosive conditions, and harmful algal blooms (HABs). There is rising concern that these events may become more common and/or severe in the future. Extreme events can have a marked impact on ecosystem resources and societal use of the coast environment with consequences for recreation, human and ecosystem health, aquaculture productivity, and the distribution, composition, and productivity of marine fisheries. While our ability to predict ecosystem changes and societal impacts has improved in recent years with improved understanding of coupled physical, biological, and social dynamics, the episodic nature of extreme events and the rarity at which they have been observed challenge attempts to forecast their occurrence. However, the severe ecological and societal consequences of these extreme events make them desirable targets for predictions that enable proactive management. PICES WG-40 aims to identify, diagnose, and quantify predictable response in North Pacific marine ecosystems that arise from regional and large-scale climate processes. In this session we will seek contributions that highlight advances in the prediction of extreme events (e.g., temperature, oxygen, pH, HABs), the characterization or identification of mechanisms responsible for their individual or co-occurrence, and the strategies to incorporate those predictions into management. This topic is relevant to the first three ToR of WG40, but also to ToR #4 (exploring integration of predictions in the management of ecosystem services), which has received somewhat less attention in our previous activities. This proposed session is intended to advance the terms of reference of WG-40 and build on strong momentum from (1) the ECCWO session “From prediction to projection: the role of seasonal to decadal forecasts in a changing climate”, (2) the PICES 2018 session “Ecological responses to variable climate changes and their applicability to ecosystem predictions”, (3) the CLIVAR-PICES 2019 workshop “Towards an integrated approach to understanding ecosystem predictability in the North Pacific,” (4) the PICES 2019 sessions “Marine heat waves in the North Pacific: Predictions and impacts in coastal regions,” “Coastal ocean modelling in the North Pacific,” and “Advances in North Pacific marine prediction”, and (5) a planned FUTURE-sponsored workshop on social impacts of extremes at the 2020 PICES annual meeting. Outside of PICES-associated meetings, this proposed session also leverages efforts of NOAA’s Marine Prediction Task Force (MPTF) whose lifespan matches that of WG-40 (2017-2020) and whose intent is to improve seasonal forecasts for management of living marine resources. Co-sponsorship We seek POC and FUTURE cosponsorship for this session. We envision this session being offered in coordination with a FUTUREsponsored workshop exploring the social impacts of extreme events in the context of the SEES framework.

The North Pacific and its marginal seas are heavily polluted with plastics. It is important to develop environmental indicators of plastic pollution to determine baselines, set targets, and project risk to species and ecosystems. The goal of this session is to continue to identify indicators – both biotic and abiotic – of plastic pollution, and to move beyond the development of indicators to determine how we can use indicators to determine baselines in the North Pacific. Environmental indicators will also prove important to project risk from plastics to the ecosystem. Risk may be assessed by the quantity or abundance of plastic particles, or as the concentration of plastic associated pollutants in organismal tissues. Research presented in this topic session will help us elucidate the status and trends of plastic pollution and their environmental impacts in the North Pacific to better allow comparisons to other regions globally. This science-informed approach will allow us to make informed decisions for plastic usage and litter management policies.

The development and application of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning to marine science issues is advancing rapidly. The combination of modern instrumentation with real time delivery, satellite data streams, biogeochemical model output, and shipboard data collection, means that many marine ecosystems are data rich but information poor. AI offers the opportunity to speed up the process of turning data into information that can be used for decision making, but also has advantages over more traditional statistics for detecting patterns and offers the potential to find meaningful ecological relationships between ecosystem state variables for which there is no theoretical framework to connect them. For this session we encourage submissions that use AI for investigating the important drivers/variables in ecological datasets, as well as computer vision applications dealing, for instance, with satellite imagery, acoustics, plankton, and corals/sediment. We invite submissions at all levels of biological organization (individuals to ecosystems), and are particularly interested in studies that integrate different types of observation technology and data types. Papers focusing on methodological advancements, ecosystem applications and the data management processes required to get ecosystem related data into forms that make it easy to use the new tools. Other information. Support: POC, TCODE, FUTURE This session is not focused on a particular problem but rather seeks to have a lively session that would help identify more practitioners of these modern tools who are already working on PICES related problems. The proposed science session is an outcome from the very successful PICES 2019 Workshop on Application of Machine Learning to Ecosystem Change Issues in the North Pacific. This Science session would continue the process of building an AI community within PICES This session is a contribution to 2 of the PICES Strategic goals • Goal 4: Advance methods and tools. Machine learning and AI are new tools with enormous potential that should be explored in the PICES context. • Goal 6: Engage with early career scientists to sustain a vibrant and cutting edge PICES scientific community. Big data and AI represent the cutting edge of the process to convert data into information in the modern world, therefore encouraging the development and application of these new tools is one way to attract early career scientists to PICES.

E-posters from any workshop or science sessions as well as General Committee Papers (GP) are welcome

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Sustainability of fisheries requires a better understanding of stock dynamics and resilience to environmental and anthropogenic forcing. Zooplankton play a vital nexus between primary producers and higher level consumers and are thus highly relevant to fisheries production and ecosystem functions. Understanding the impact of trophic relationships on the nutrition of larvae and foraging fishes is a critical step needed to forecast the stock response and resilience to environmental changes. However, limited attention has been paid to the role of zooplankton in sustaining fisheries production, which is largely because routine measurements of secondary production remain rare. This workshop will discuss prospective ways for understanding functional and structural roles of secondary production on fisheries dynamics and production. In particular, we encourage presentations and discussions on research using experimental, observational and modeling approaches linking zooplankton productivity and fish larvae and foraging fishes.

Climate and environmental variability influence pelagic ecosystems with direct and indirect impacts on pelagic and forage fish populations. These species are particularly responsive to shifts in the physical environmental and the production and phenology of biological production at lower trophic levels. Forage fish are also the link between planktonic food webs and higher trophic levels in the global ocean. Despite their critical role in North Pacific ecosystems, forage fish have remained understudied due to the majority of research resources and effort being focused on the predatory species that they support. This knowledge gap is increasingly pressing as the North Pacific advances into new climate and ocean modes. We propose to host a workshop that builds on the 2018 Session in Yokohama, Japan and related collaborations to share results on trends in pelagic and forage fishes in the North Pacific PICES region, including work using experimental, observational and modeling approaches. We intend to use the North Pacific as a case study for global response to warming and determine the attributes important in understanding how different populations respond in similar or divergent ways to common drivers. We also aim to examine two overarching themes (1) adaptation/resiliency and (2) forecasting) to better define our 'current state of knowledge' and use this workshop to further identify data gaps, research needs, and useful tools and models to further research in this area. This workshop aims to bring forage fish researchers from around the North Pacific. The workshop will use regional presentations as a springboard for discussion on common ecosystem drivers and similarities / dissimilarities among regions. Priority data gaps will be ranked as a step towards focusing direction for short and long-term research objectives.

Anthropogenic stressors, such as climate change, plastic pollution, discharged toxins, fishery interaction, noise pollution, and offshore wind farms impact marine birds and mammals, affecting their distributions and abundances. These stressors can act directly or indirectly on marine birds and mammals, and can pose a considerable challenge for marine conservation. Understanding how stressors affect marine birds and mammals is an important step in estimating and mitigating against these threats.

The aim of this workshop is to improve our understanding of anthropogenic stressors, and how they affect marine birds and mammals throughout the North Pacific Ocean. One of the main outcomes of the workshop will be the development of a Pathways of Effects style heuristic or conceptual model describing how stressors act on marine birds and mammals. Workshop participants will be invited to discuss a PICES region-by-region assessment of stressor importance, and how mechanisms of impact may differ among regions.

The goals of FUTURE and UN Decade of Ocean Science require systematic and sustained observations of marine ecosystems, especially in the coastal regions where the interactions between humans and the marine environment are most intense. The Advisory Panel on North Pacific Coastal Ocean Observing Systems is responsible for advising PICES on the linkages between coastal ocean observing systems and the PICES FUTURE Science Program. We propose a Workshop to address the question of how the PICES community plan to measure the Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBV; Miloslavich et al 2018 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14108) and make them available to the community (the essence of Coastal Ocean Observing Systems). The workshop will provide a basis for identifying gaps in observing systems relative to FUTURE’s goals of providing a synthesis of knowledge on : a) ecosystem resilience and vulnerability; b) ecosystem response to natural and anthropogenic forcing; and c) future ecosystem change. We will solicit contributions that will address the following questions: 1) what is the current state of monitoring EBVs in each PICES country; 2) what new technologies are being developed which will help monitor EBVs (e.g. eDNA, satellite mapping of macro algae); 3) which technologies are moving beyond the pilot stage to the mature stage; and 4) what is the state of the art in getting EBVs into databases and getting them out via user friendly interfaces? The primary output from the workshop is expected to be a journal article describing the current state of the art in both the measurement of EBVs in the coastal zone and in making the data widely available.

Intergenerational diversity is central to sustainability since it relies on meeting the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. As such, early career ocean professional (ECOP) engagement is a central focus of PICES and within the context of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021-2030) since emerging ocean leaders are needed to bring fresh ideas, sustained engagement and scientific cooperation, and diverse perspectives to the next chapter of scientific discovery. This workshop will bring together the next generation of ocean professionals and mentors to engage in a networking/interactive session with Expert Group chairs and other PICES visionaries.

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