Study Group: Climate and Ecosystem Predictability
Statement of Purpose:

Building on the outcomes of Prior PICES WGs on North Pacific Climate (WG-27), Ecosystem Indicators (WG-28), and Regional Modeling (WG-29), and collaborations with CLIVAR, we propose a study group that use the knowledge gained on the mechanisms of Pacific climate, regional modeling, and ecosystem indicators to develop terms of reference for a new CLIVAR/PICES joint working group that will focus on climate and ecosystem predictions. Establishing this group, in collaboration with CLIVAR, will allow PICES to integrate CLIVAR expertise and interest in seasonal to decadal predictions.  The main goal for establishing a new working group would be to allow PICES to identify and quantify the skill of marine ecosystem predictability associated with climate-driven processes. Ultimately, the activities of this study group will lead to approaches that may facilitate some of the forecasting needs identified by the FUTURE integrative science program of PICES.

Terms of Reference
  1. Identify a set of North Pacific climate mechanisms that provide skill in predicting physical, chemical and biological processes that impact the marine ecosystem and its food web dynamics. The identified mechanisms might act on any of the following timescales: intra-seasonal, seasonal, interannual, decadal and climate change.
  2. Identify a set of North Pacific ecological indicators and/or marine ecosystem functional responses of fish and shellfish, which are impacted by the forcing processes identified in TOR1.  This step will connect the forcing processes identified in TOR-1 to population/ecological processes impacting harvested species in the North Pacific.
  3. Identify modeling frameworks for climate and ecosystem predictability. The SG will identify a set of modeling frameworks and existing model outputs (e.g. IPCC-class climate models) that can be used to evaluate the predictability dynamics identified in TOR 1 and 2. To do so, the SG will leverage outcomes and products developed by WG-29.
  4. Develop TORs for a potential new Joint PICES/CLIVAR working group on Climate & Ecosystem Predictability
  5. Showcase an example of short-term regional climate predictions. For PICES-2016 in San Diego, the SG will present an example of a short term prediction system that can be used to accomplish the science goals of FUTURE. This example will provide an important approach for developing predictions of different ocean ecosystems in the North Pacific.
Members as of Oct. 2016