PICES 2014 FUTURE OPEN SCIENCE MEETING
Please NOTE the content of the following Presentations
cannot be used without authors' permissions.
To download and save these files on your local machine, right-click
on the link and choose "Save Target As..."
Hal Batchelder (PICES Secretariat)
Kai M.A. Chan (Canada)
Edward J. Gregr (Canada)
Shin-ichi Ito (Japan)
Vladimir Kulik (Russia)
Naesun Park (Korea)
Ian Perry (Canada)
Jameal Samhouri (USA)
Motomitsu Takahashi (Japan)
Georgina A. Gibson (International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA)
Lee Failing (Compass Resource Management Ltd., Canada)
Uncertainty is a key theme of the FUTURE program. Scientific uncertainty extends beyond the outputs of
oceanographic or ecosystem models and has significant consequences on human dimensions ranging from
public and stakeholder perception to tactical and strategic decision making by managers and policy makers. The
workshop will consider uncertainty along the entire path from data, through model design and implementation to
communication and uptake of results by decision makers. Such end-to-end consideration of uncertainty is critical
to improve the uptake of oceanographic model results by stakeholders and decision makers in all PICES member
countries, particularly as the modeling community moves towards end-to-end models, and faces the challenges of
managing multiple stressors. This workshop will thus bridge two central themes of the FUTURE Open Science
Meeting: quantification and measurement of uncertainty in observations and projects, and communication and
engagement in the development and dissemination of FUTURE products.
The workshop will be centered on two themes. The first of them concerns input data, model structure, and
parameterization, and will focus on how sources of uncertainty can be articulated and presented on a technical
level. This theme challenges the modeling community to explain the credibility of their results, articulate their
assumptions, and generally expose sources of uncertainty. Models of any topic including stock assessment,
ecosystem dynamics, and cumulative effects are welcome.
The second theme will consider decision analysis and decision making, including psychological insights into
how people perceive, understand, and incorporate complex information into decision-making. Discussions will
focus on: (1) how FUTURE can best articulate uncertainty assessments, and develop a communication strategy
to broaden the engagement of the public, communities, decision makers and other stakeholders in the results
emerging from FUTURE; and (2) how FUTURE products can link to coastal communities, with an emphasis
on how and to what degree these products are relevant to the communities whose decisions they presume to
affect. This includes the fundamental challenge of how to scale FUTURE scientific outputs with impacts on
human dimensions, generally considered at more local extents. This theme in particular will consider approaches
to communicate the value of FUTURE products beyond the natural science community. Potential topics of
additional discussion include outreach to other disciplines (e.g., psychologists and anthropologists) with the intent
of developing more insightful and applicable inter-disciplinary outputs and strategies for presenting FUTURE
products to the broader, international stakeholder community.
From this workshop, we plan a primary publication outlining how FUTURE products can be effectively communicated to the intended audiences.