Working Group 40: Climate and Ecosystem Predictability
Motivation and Goals:

To identify, diagnose and quantify predictable response in North Pacific marine ecosystems that arise from regional- and large-scale climate processes.

The North Pacific marine ecosystems are primary sources of ecosystem services for Russia, Canada, Japan, China, Korea and the US (e.g. fishing, shipping, and recreation). Long-term historical observations of physical and biological variables been collected around the North Pacific rim since the 1950s, leading to an excellent foundation for understanding the ecosystem impacts of dominant climate processes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the North Pacific, regional- and large-scale climate forcing impacts a wide range of physical and biotic processes including temperature, stratification, winds, upwelling, and primary and secondary production. Moreover, there is some predictability in the physical system on seasonal (Stock et al. 2015) and even longer (e.g., Qiu et al. 2014) times scales. Nevertheless, there has been no systematic and synergistic attempt to use this knowledge to forecast marine ecosystem responses to climate forcing, which is a primary goal of the PICES FUTURE science plan and CLIVAR. The new PICES working group will leverage the international expertise within PICES and foster more active interactions with CLIVAR to “identify, diagnose and quantify predictable response in North Pacific marine ecosystems that arise from regional- and large-scale climate processes.”

Terms of Reference
  1. Identify a set of North Pacific ecological indicators and/or marine ecosystem functional responses of fish and shellfish, which show predictable responses to large- and regional-scale climate forcing;
  2. Quantify the predictability of the regional ecosystem drivers that are controlled by large-scale climate variability and change;
  3. Identify dynamical and statistical modeling frameworks for climate and ecosystem predictability;
  4. Identify how and which ecosystem predictions can be integrated in the management of ecosystem services;
  5. Identify climate and ocean products that can be used to begin making predictions of North Pacific marine ecosystems;
  6. Outcomes and synergies with international efforts.
Annual Meetings


2020, 2019, 2018, 2017

Session and Workshop Summaries

S15, Advances in North Pacific marine ecosystem prediction

S7, Ecological responses to variable climate changes and their applicability to ecosystem predictions


Winter 2020, Vol. 28, No. 1, pp. 51-53
Towards an integrated approach to understanding ecosystem predictability in the North Pacific

Primary Journals
A special issue of Frontiers in Marine Science (on North Pacific Climate and Ecosystem Predictability on Seasonal to Decadal Timescales), containing ten papers, resulting from the 2019 Qingdao workshop and papers from the PICES-2019 Annual Meeting in Victoria. Editors: S. Minobe, A. Capotondi, F. Chai, M. Jacox, M Nonaka, and R. Rykaczewski.
Related Materials
Proposal for a Working Group on Climate and Ecosystem Predictability
Dr. James Christian (CC-S, POC, WG-40)
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
c/o University of Victoria, P.O. Box 3065
Victoria, BC
Canada V8W 3V6
(1-250) 686-6081
(1-250) 363-8247
Dr. Caihong Fu (WG-40)
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Pacific Biological Station
3190 Hammond Bay Rd.
Nanaimo, BC
Canada V9T 6N7
(1-250) 729 8373
(1-250) 756 7053
Prof. Shoshiro Minobe (WG-40)
WG-40 Co-Chair (CLIVAR)
Earth and Planetary Sciences, Graduate School of Sciences
Hokkaido University
N10W8 Rigaku-8-goukan 3F
Sapporo, Hokkaido
Japan 060-0810
(81-11) 706-2644
(81-11) 706-2644
Dr. Masami Nonaka (WG-40)
WG-40 PICES Co-Chair
Climate Variability Prediction and Application Research Group
Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC
3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku
Yokohama, Kanagawa
Japan 236-0001
(81-45) 778-5496
(81-45) 778-5707
Prof. Akinori Takasuka (WG-40, WG-43)
WG-43 PICES Co-Chair
Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences
The University of Tokyo
1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo
Tokyo, Japan 113-8657
Dr. Ying Bao (WG-40)
First Institute of Oceanography
Ministry of Natural Resources
6 Xianxialing Rd., LaoShan District
Qingdao, People's Republic of China 266061
Dr. Fei Chai (WG-40, WG-43)
Second Institute of Oceanography
Ministry of Natural Resources
36 Baochubei Rd.
Hangzhou, People's Republic of China 310012
Dr. Jinqiu Du (WG-40)
Department of Marine Chemistry
National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center (NMEMC), MEE
42 Linghe St., Shahekou District
Dalian, Liaoning
People's Republic of China 116023
Dr. Chan Joo Jang (POC, WG-40)
Ocean Circulation Research Center
Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST)
385 Haeyang-ro, Youngdo-gu
Busan, Republic of Korea 49111
(82-51) 664-3117
(82-51) 403-4920
Dr. MinHo Kwon (WG-40)
787, Haeanro
Ansan, Republic of Korea 426-744
Prof. Chung Il Lee (S-CCME, WG-40)
Department of Marine Bioscience
Gangneung-Wonju National University
7 Jukhen-gil
Gangneung-si, Republic of Korea 25457
(82-33) 640-2855
(82-33) 640-2340
Dr. Vladimir V. Kulik (MONITOR, WG-35, WG-36, WG-40)
Laboratory for biological resources of the Far-Eastern and Arctic Seas
Pacific branch (TINRO) of the Russian Federal Research Institute Of Fisheries and Oceanography (VNI
4 Shevchenko Alley
Vladivostok, Primorsky Kray
Russia 690091
(7-999) 057-99-69
Dr. Yury I. Zuenko (CREAMS-AP, POC, S-CCME, SG-UNDOS, WG-35, WG-40, WG-44)
POC Vice-Chair, WG-44 Co-Chair
Fisheries Oceanography
Russian Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography, Pacific branch (TINRO)
4 Shevchenko Alley
Vladivostok, Russia 690091
(7-423) 2604-530
(7-423) 2300-752
Dr. Antonietta Capotondi (WG-40)
WG-40 Co-Chair (CLIVAR)
University of Colorado
325 Broadway
Boulder, CO
U.S.A. 80305
(1-303) 497-6105
(1-303) 497-6449
Prof. Emanuele Di Lorenzo (FUTURE-SSC, POC, SB, SG-UNDOS, WG-40)
POC Chair
Program in Ocean Science and Engineering
Georgia Institute of Technology
311 Ferst Dr.
Atlanta, GA
U.S.A. 30332
(1-404) 788-8035
Dr. Michael Jacox (WG-40)
WG-40 PICES Co-Chair
Environmental Research Division
NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center
99 Pacific St., Suite 255A
Monterey, CA
U.S.A. 93940
(1-831) 648-8536
Dr. Ryan R. Rykaczewski (CREAMS-AP, FUTURE-SSC, WG-40, WG-43)
WG-40 Co-Chair (CLIVAR), WG-43 PICES Co-Chair
Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center
NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service
Ecosystem Sciences Division NOAA PIFSC 1845 Wasp Blvd, Bldg. 176
Honolulu, HI
U.S.A. 96818-5007
(1-808) 725-5372
Prof. Samantha Siedlecki (CC-S, WG-40)
Marine Sciences
University of Connecticut
1080 Shennecossett Rd.
Groton, CT
U.S.A. 06340