Working Group 40: Climate and Ecosystem Predictability
Motivation and Goals:

To identify, diagnose and quantify predictable response in North Pacific marine ecosystems that arise from regional- and large-scale climate processes.

The North Pacific marine ecosystems are primary sources of ecosystem services for Russia, Canada, Japan, China, Korea and the US (e.g. fishing, shipping, and recreation). Long-term historical observations of physical and biological variables been collected around the North Pacific rim since the 1950s, leading to an excellent foundation for understanding the ecosystem impacts of dominant climate processes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the North Pacific, regional- and large-scale climate forcing impacts a wide range of physical and biotic processes including temperature, stratification, winds, upwelling, and primary and secondary production. Moreover, there is some predictability in the physical system on seasonal (Stock et al. 2015) and even longer (e.g., Qiu et al. 2014) times scales. Nevertheless, there has been no systematic and synergistic attempt to use this knowledge to forecast marine ecosystem responses to climate forcing, which is a primary goal of the PICES FUTURE science plan and CLIVAR. The new PICES working group will leverage the international expertise within PICES and foster more active interactions with CLIVAR to “identify, diagnose and quantify predictable response in North Pacific marine ecosystems that arise from regional- and large-scale climate processes.”

Terms of Reference
  1. Identify a set of North Pacific ecological indicators and/or marine ecosystem functional responses of fish and shellfish, which show predictable responses to large- and regional-scale climate forcing;
  2. Quantify the predictability of the regional ecosystem drivers that are controlled by large-scale climate variability and change;
  3. Identify dynamical and statistical modeling frameworks for climate and ecosystem predictability;
  4. Identify how and which ecosystem predictions can be integrated in the management of ecosystem services;
  5. Identify climate and ocean products that can be used to begin making predictions of North Pacific marine ecosystems;
  6. Outcomes and synergies with international efforts.
Annual Meetings



Session and Workshop Summaries

Related Materials
Group Proposal
Dr. James Christian (CC-S, POC, WG-40)
S-CC Co-Chair
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
c/o University of Victoria, P.O. Box 3065
Victoria, BC
Canada V8W 3V6
(1-250) 363-8319
(1-250) 363-8247
Dr. Caihong Fu (WG-40)
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Pacific Biological Station
3190 Hammond Bay Rd.
Nanaimo, BC
Canada V9T 6N7
(1-250) 729 8373
(1-250) 756 7053
Dr. Ying Bao (WG-40)
First Institute of Oceanography
State Oceanic Administration
6 Xianxialing Rd., LaoShan District
Qingdao, China, PR 266061
Dr. Fei Chai (WG-40)
Second Institute of Oceanography
State Oceanic Administration
36 Baochubei Rd.
Hangzhou, China, PR 310012
Dr. Jinqiu Du (WG-40)
Department of Marine Chemistry
National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center (NMEMC), SOA
42 Linghe St., Shahekou District
Dalian, Liaoning
China, PR 116023
Prof. Shoshiro Minobe (WG-40)
WG-40 Co-Chair (CLIVAR)
Earth and Planetary Sciences, Graduate School of Sciences
Hokkaido University
N10W8 Rigaku-8-goukan 3F
Sapporo, Hokkaido
Japan 060-0810
(81-11) 706-2644
(81-11) 706-2644
Dr. Masami Nonaka (WG-40)
WG-40 PICES Co-Chair
Climate Variability Prediction and Application Research Group
Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC
3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku
Yokohama, Kanagawa
Japan 236-0001
(81-45) 778-5496
(81-45) 778-5707
Dr. Akinori Takasuka (WG-40)
National Research Institute of Fisheries Science
Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency
2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa
Yokohama, Kanagawa
Japan 236-8648
Dr. Chan Joo Jang (POC, WG-40)
Ocean Circulation and Climate Research Center
Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST)
385 Haeyang-ro, Youngdo-gu
Busan, Korea, R 49111
(82-51) 664-1317
(82-51) 403-4920
Dr. MinHo Kwon (WG-40)
787, Haeanro
Ansan, Korea, R 426-744
Prof. Chung Il Lee (S-CCME, WG-40)
Department of Marine Bioscience
Gangneung-Wonju National University
7 Jukhen-gil
Gangneung-si, Korea, R 25457
(82-33) 640-2855
(82-33) 640-2340
Dr. Vladimir V. Kulik (MONITOR, WG-35, WG-36, WG-40)
Laboratory for Fishing statistics and databases
Pacific Scientific Research Fisheries Center (TINRO-Center)
4 Shevchenko Alley
Vladivostok, Primorsky Kray
Russia 690091
(7-999) 057-99-69
Dr. Yury I. Zuenko (CREAMS-AP, POC, S-CCME, WG-35, WG-40)
POC Vice-Chair
Fisheries Oceanography
Pacific Scientific Research Fisheries Center (TINRO-Center)
4 Shevchenko Alley
Vladivostok, Russia 690091
(7-423) 2604-530
(7-423) 2300-752
Dr. Antonietta Capotondi (WG-40)
WG-40 Co-Chair (CLIVAR)
University of Colorado
325 Broadway
Boulder, CO
U.S.A. 80305
(1-303) 497-6105
(1-303) 497-6449
Prof. Emanuele Di Lorenzo (FUTURE-SSC, POC, SB, WG-40)
SB Vice-Chair, POC Chair
Program in Ocean Science and Engineering
Georgia Institute of Technology
311 Ferst Dr.
Atlanta, GA
U.S.A. 30332
(1-404) 788-8035
Dr. Michael Jacox (WG-40)
WG-40 PICES Co-Chair
Environmental Research Division
NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center
99 Pacific St., Suite 255A
Monterey, CA
U.S.A. 93940
(1-831) 648-8536
Dr. Ryan R. Rykaczewski (CREAMS-AP, FUTURE-SSC, WG-40)
WG-40 Co-Chair (CLIVAR)
Department of Biological Sciences
University of South Carolina
715 Sumter St., Earth & Water Sciences
Columbia, SC
U.S.A. 29208
(1-803) 777-8159
(1-803) 777-6610
Prof. Samantha Siedlecki (WG-40)
Marine Sciences
University of Connecticut
1080 Shennecossett Road
Groton, Connecticut
U.S.A. 06340