To identify, diagnose and quantify predictable response in North Pacific marine ecosystems that arise from regional- and large-scale climate processes.
The North Pacific marine ecosystems are primary sources of ecosystem services for Russia, Canada, Japan, China, Korea and the US (e.g. fishing, shipping, and recreation). Long-term historical observations of physical and biological variables been collected around the North Pacific rim since the 1950s, leading to an excellent foundation for understanding the ecosystem impacts of dominant climate processes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the North Pacific, regional- and large-scale climate forcing impacts a wide range of physical and biotic processes including temperature, stratification, winds, upwelling, and primary and secondary production. Moreover, there is some predictability in the physical system on seasonal (Stock et al. 2015) and even longer (e.g., Qiu et al. 2014) times scales. Nevertheless, there has been no systematic and synergistic attempt to use this knowledge to forecast marine ecosystem responses to climate forcing, which is a primary goal of the PICES FUTURE science plan and CLIVAR. The new PICES working group will leverage the international expertise within PICES and foster more active interactions with CLIVAR to “identify, diagnose and quantify predictable response in North Pacific marine ecosystems that arise from regional- and large-scale climate processes.”