Archive for FUTURE Scientific Program: Forecasting and Understanding Trends, Uncertainty and Responses of North Pacific Marine Ecosystems

Road Map

Shortly after the development of the Science Plan and Implementation Plan of FUTURE, it was realized that the numerous and diverse activities of FUTURE would require specialists devoted to specific problems, and likely the creation of new Expert Groups (EGs). The complex and multidisciplinary issues involved in the concepts of resilience, vulnerability, climate and anthropogenic forcing of marine and coastal ecosystems, and the impacts and interactions of ecosystem changes with human populations, required a “ROADMAP” to understand where we are now, where we want to be in the FUTURE, and what are the obstacles and routes to achieve the objectives set forth by the science program. The roadmap emerged initially from discussions held at a FUTURE workshop in Busan, Korea in May 2012. It has been iteratively updated subsequently at ca. six month intervals. Updating is necessary as new EGs are formed to tackle additional tasks within the FUTURE framework, and existing EGs complete their tasks, filling gaps, but also potential revealing new scientific needs. Some tasks proceed on schedule, others fall behind schedule, and for the strength of the program it is important to track progress on all aspects of FUTURE, which is the raison d’être for the FUTURE ROADMAP.

Downlad pdf files (Roadmap 1, Roadmap 2)

Downlad jpeg files (Roadmap 1, Roadmap 2)

2014 Evaluation Team Report
2014 FUTURE Evaluation Team Report
Over a three-year period PICES developed the ten-year FUTURE Science Plan and Implementation Plan, which were adopted in 2009. As 2014 is the midpoint in the lifespan of FUTURE, PICES appointed an Evaluation Panel to review progress towards the FUTURE goals.

At the FUTURE Open Science Meeting in 2014, at the mid-point of the program, PICES established a FUTURE Evaluation Panel (FEP) to review progress towards achieving the goals of FUTURE as set out in the Science and Implementation Plans. The report of the FUTURE Evaluation Panel identified a number of organizational and implementation impediments to advancing FUTURE science, and made several recommendations to advance FUTURE and PICES in the coming years (Box 1). Foremost among the recommendations was the establishment of a FUTURE scientific steering committee, separate from the PICES Science Board, that would provide leadership and scientific direction to the program. Following these recommendations, PICES Governing Council agreed to the formation and composition of a FUTURE Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) at the PICES 2014 Annual Meeting in Yeosu, Korea. Membership of the FUTURE SSC and its revised Terms of Reference can be found at the PICES website.

Box 1. Summary of the FUTURE Evaluation Panel report
  • FUTURE should be the flagship of PICES by providing a focus for higher priority work, showcasing PICES scientific achievements on the global marine science stage, and reaching out beyond the PICES North Pacific nations.
  • FUTURE activities in ocean-climate forecasting have been successful, benefitting from the large-scale and integrative nature of the research. This area of FUTURE research has made strong international collaborations, and should continue to do so. There could be better integration with biological and socio-economic research. The multi-decadal forecasting should be complemented with activities that focus on shorter-term (1-3 and 3-5 year) forecasts, which are valuable for marine resource management.
  • Since many issues relating to coastal pressures and impacts are inherently subnational or local in scale, there has been less incentive for international collaboration within this FUTURE theme and very little progress has been made. PICES countries and experts need to greatly increase their investment in the PICES activities related to coastal pressures and cumulative assessments. It is recommended that 1-2 coastal pressures that are of interest to all PICES nations be identified, and activities prioritized to address impact assessments of those pressures. Addressing this FUTURE theme, particularly the human dimension aspects, needs to be a priority in the next 5 years.
  • Forecasting within the coastal component of FUTURE has yet to be accomplished, and is just as relevant as forecasting for offshore climate issues. Linkages between the PICES forecasting community and the PICES coastal expert community need to be strengthened.
  • For communication and outreach, PICES needs more systematic identification of target audiences, and the type of products and information best suited for those audiences. There needs to be a much clearer commitment by PICES members, both as institutions and as individuals, to the communications and outreach elements of FUTURE.
  • Recommend establishing a FUTURE Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) to improve scientific oversight, coordination, leadership, and accountability of the program, and the disbandment of the three advisory panels. The FUTURE SSC is charged with ensuring clear and effective communication with PICES scientific and technical Committees, Expert Groups and members’ national science communities.
Implementation Plan (Phase I)

The FUTURE Implementation Plan
developed by the Implementation Plan Writing Team (WT-IP) under the Study Group on Future Integrative Scientific Program(s) (SG-FISP) was approved in principle at the 2009 inter-sessional meeting (April 2009, Qingdao, PR China) and finalized in June 2009.

The initial FUTURE implementation plan published in 2009 described the structure necessary for FUTURE to carry out the goals of the Science Plan, and reflects consultations with the Science Board, Governing Council, and the larger PICES membership. The initial FUTURE structure outlined in this implementation strategy was organized as three Advisory Panels (AP). AP-AICE (Anthropogenic Influences on Coastal Ecosystems) and AP-COVE (Climate, Oceanographic Variability and Ecosystems) were focused on Objective I, and AP-SOFE (Status, Outlooks, Forecasts, and Engagement) was focused on Objective 2. PICES Science Board, including the chairpersons of the three APs, served as the Scientific Steering Committee for FUTURE. The Advisory Panels (AICE, COVE and SOFE) provided continuing direction, leadership, coordination, and synthesis within PICES toward attaining the FUTURE goals.

FUTURE Disbanded Advisory Panels

In Phase I Science Board received advice from three Advisory Panels of FUTURE, whose chairs were also members of Science Board. Three FUTURE Advisory Panels (AICE-AP, COVE-AP, SOFE-AP) provided continuing direction, leadership, coordination, and synthesis within PICES toward attaining the FUTURE goal. They recommended activities to be undertaken by existing expert groups, recommended new FUTURE products and, in coordination with Scientific and Technical Committees, suggested and helped to develop new expert groups.

AP-AICE: FUTURE Advisory Panel on Anthropogenic Influences on Coastal Ecosystems
(Oct. 2009 - Oct. 2014)

AP-COVE: FUTURE Advisory Panel on Climate, Oceanographic Variability and Ecosystems
(Oct. 2009 - Oct. 2014)

AP-SOFE: FUTURE Adisory Panel on Status, Outlooks, Forecasts, and Engagement
(Oct. 2009 - Oct. 2014)